Basketball fans can set their sights on a number of events on the horizon. NBA fans may be focusing on playoff chaces ahead of the postseason, whereas college basketball fans are looking ahead to conference tournaments and March Matchups.
Where those lines converge is the NBA Draft. While we are still months away from the first team stepping to the podium, every team is busy assessing prospects and creating their respective draft boards.
There is still a lot to be determined, but the betting market has taken a clear stance on who they think will go first overall.
AJ Dybantsa – Presumptive First Overall Selection
Since the start of the college basketball season, there is one player who continues to elevate himself as the top prospect in this year’s draft. AJ Dybantsa has been a one-man wrecking crew for the BYU Cougars. In doing so, he has become one of the favorites to hear his name called first.
Dybantsa’s betting odds have been on the rise all season, but his recent play has inspired another deluge of action. The big man has gone north of 28 points in three straight and six of his last seven. In doing so, he has bumped his scoring average up to 25.1 points per game, an NCAA best, while knocking down 53.2% of his shots. Predictably, Dybantsa has also been a force on the boards, averaging 6.8 rebounds per game on the season, including 9.5 per game over his last four.
Bettors have taken note of Dybantsa’s superior play. Once regarded as the presumptive second-overall selection, the Cougars’ forward has vaulted to the top of the betting board. Currently, he’s listed at +140 to go first-overall, the second-shortest odds on the board.
That movement is validated by an 80.5% ticket count and 60.2% handle. BetMGM could stand to lose out if Dybantsa is the first name off the board, as he represents their biggest liability ahead of the draft.
Darryn Peterson – Still in the Race
Arguably, there is only one other player who could potentially dethrone AJ Dybantsa from his pedestal. Previously, Darryn Peterson was regarded as the top player in this year’s draft class; however, his fortune has faded with his recent play. That correlates with a downswing in the betting market, both of which could correct with a strong end to the season.
Peterson drives play for the Kansas Jayhawks, but he’s looked less effective at the tailend of the regular season. The 6’6” guard has fallen below 14 points in three of his last five, recording just three assists and 13 rebounds across that sample. Altogether, that play has precipitated a drop in his metrics across the board, most notably in shooting percentage and offensive efficiency.
His play has lagged, but Peterson’s betting odds remain strong. The Ohio native is still listed as -150 to go first in the 2026 NBA Draft, albeit, a steep decline from his -325 price when the odds opened. Still, with 36.5% of the handle coming in on Peterson, representing just 2.4% of the tickets, BetMGM may continue to hold the price steady to offset their exposure on Dybantsa.
Other Notable Players to Watch
Clearly, it’s a two-horse race to the finish line, but there are several other intriguing prospects to keep an eye on down the stretch.
Cameron Boozer stands as one of the longshots to rise up late in the season. Of NBA progeny, Boozer is another public darling to go first. While he’s only accounting for 2.6% of the betting handle, 12.2% of tickets are being written on the big man. It’s possible that we see him overtake Dybantsa and Peterson, but it’s not probable.
The only other player commanding a share of the market is Caleb Wilson. The North Carolina forward has one of the better complete profiles, averaging 19.8 points per game on 57.8% shooting and 9.4 rebounds. He’s also a menace on defense, averaging 1.4 blocks and 1.5 steals per game. Still, Wilson’s 4.4% ticket to 0.7% handle, imply that he’s a public target.
Final Thoughts – 2026 NBA Draft
There are several key factors worth considering before placing your bets. Most notably, whichever team gets the first overall selection could have different priorities. Injuries, performance down the stretch, and team needs should be evaluated before stepping to the counter.
Irrespective of those factors, two players stand among the rest. AJ Dybantsa, the public darling, and Darryn Peterson, the sharp target, are the two names you will hear most about as we head into draft season. Stay sharp and keep an eye on March Matchups and the NBA standings to figure out where your money belongs.
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