With most MLB teams beginning Spring Training workouts this week now is the perfect time to dive into the 2025 MVP futures markets. Both leagues have a mix of perennial contenders, strong value plays, and long shots with breakout potential. Let’s break down the best bets for the American and National League MVP races.
American League MVP 2025
The Favorite: Aaron Judge (+300)
It’s no surprise that Aaron Judge is the leading favorite for the AL MVP. He remains the best power hitter in baseball, averaging 49 home runs over the past four seasons. But what makes him even more dangerous is how he evolved in 2024, improving his contact skills with a career-best .322 batting average and a .456 OBP. His 58 home runs and 144 RBIs were league-best marks, and despite the New York Yankees losing Juan Soto, they still have a deep lineup to provide protection. If Judge maintains his high-level contact and elite power numbers, he could run away with his second MVP award in three years.
The Value Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1600)
After contract extension talks with the Toronto Blue Jays fell apart this week, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could be extra motivated in 2025. Set to potentially hit the open market next offseason, Guerrero will be looking to prove he’s worth a mega-deal. His 2024 season was strong, posting a .323 average (second in MLB), 30 home runs, 103 RBIs, and a .940 OPS. He also had one of the best second halves in baseball last year, hitting .358 in July and .375 in August. The addition of slugger Anthony Santander, who hit 44 home runs for the Baltimore Orioles in 2024, hitting behind him, should allow Vladdy to see better pitches. If he can take his power numbers up a notch closer to his career-best of 48 homers in 2021 and the Blue Jays remain in contention, his odds could shorten quickly. At +1600, he presents one of the best value plays on the board.
The Longshot: Cody Bellinger (+5500)
A former NL MVP, Cody Bellinger, struggled in Chicago last year, hitting .266 with 18 home runs with the Cubs. But Wrigley Field has been ranked as one of baseball’s worst hitter-friendly parks (27th according to Baseball Savant) for the past three years. Now Bellinger moves to Yankee Stadium, one of the most favorable parks for left-handed power hitters. Additionally, he’ll be surrounded by Aaron Judge, likely in front of him, and Giancarlo Stanton and Jazz Chisholm Jr. behind him in the New York Yankees’ lineup, where he’s projected to hit third. Bellinger has seen his approach at the plate evolve, striking out less while making more contact. If he recaptures some of his 2019 MVP form, where he hit a career-best 47 HR with the Los Angeles Dodgers, he could be a dark-horse contender in the AL race.
National League MVP 2025
The Favorite: Shohei Ohtani (+155)
Shohei Ohtani remains the best all-around player in the sport and is the odds-on favorite to take home his fourth MVP award and second straight in the NL. After becoming the first player in MLB history in the 50-50 club, with 54 home runs and 59 stolen bases last year, he’s set to return to the mound in 2025, which could make his value even greater. Even if he only contributes as a hitter for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Ohtani is still among the elite, finishing last season with a .310 average, 130 RBIs, and a 1.036 OPS. If he stays healthy and pitches at an elite level, the award is his to lose.
The Value Pick: Elly De La Cruz (+2000)
At just 23 years old, Elly De La Cruz is one of the most electrifying players in baseball. He led MLB in stolen bases (67) last season, and his blend of speed, power, and fielding makes him a legitimate MVP candidate. Playing at Great American Ballpark, one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums over the past three years (ranked second by Baseball Savant), De La Cruz could see his power numbers increase in 2025. If he can cut down on strikeouts and improve his on-base percentage, the Cincinnati Reds star has a real shot at finishing among the top three in MVP voting.
The Longshot: Mark Vientos (+5500)
Mark Vientos had a breakout year in 2024, hitting .266 with 27 home runs in a New York Mets lineup, providing him ample protection. This year, he’ll have the newly acquitted Juan Soto and his career .421 OBP in front of him, along with familiar teammates Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso. Projected to be in the five-hole, Vientos should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. If he continues to improve his approach against right-handed pitchers and gets a slight boost in his home run total, he could become one of the best-value longshots for MVP. At 25 years old, his ceiling remains high, making him an intriguing bet at long odds.
Circle the Bases
While Judge and Ohtani are the clear frontrunners, there is strong value in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Elly De La Cruz, given their recent performances and surrounding circumstances. And for bettors looking for an even bigger payday, Cody Bellinger and Mark Vientos present exciting longshot opportunities, both with realistic paths to the award. With Spring Training just beginning, now is the time to take advantage of these numbers before the odds shift as the season unfolds.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
