Here’s another one of those “patterns” that some of us think we’ve spotted, with this one relating to payouts of bonus features:
I noticed if you get a bonus right away they are much lower because the machine is paying out right away. In other words you have not put in much. Is that true?
Claudia C.
Bonus payouts are not calculated based on how much a machine has been played. They’re designed based on how much money a game designer has designated for the bonus as a percentage of the machine’s payout, and how frequently the bonus is triggered.
If you play long enough, you might catch a first spin bonus or a quick massive win. Play long enough and you might find bonuses never come. Play long enough and you might notice a small bonus the first time and a large bonus the second time.
Play long enough and all three scenarios above, plus others, will inevitably happen. Our brain, however, will spot the ones that lean into what we think may be true (or most likely), and retain just those scenarios, forming a “pattern” that we’ve spotted. It’s called confirmation bias.
In scenarios like this, we always encourage people to carry a notepad for awhile, and each time you get a bonus, log how many spins it took and how much the bonus was as a multiple of your bet.
If you average things out, it likely will just show an average payout amount with enough examples – the more examples you log, the more likely it’ll approach that average. That statistical approach is how slots reach their payout percentages over time despite awarding jackpots and other big prizes along the way.
So no, bonuses don’t underperform just because you’re a few spins in – you can hit a jackpot on the very first spin, and the chances of any particular outcome a game is designed to offer are the same on any spin.
