It took until the last day of the regular season, but the NBA Playoffs field is set! Sunday concluded the postseason seeding, setting the Play-In teams apart from the top six competitors in each conference. While a few of the playoff matchups are known, the totality of the bracket won’t be determined until after the Play-In Tournament.
That makes it an ideal time to check in on the NBA futures market and see where the money is flowing at BetMGM!
Biggest NBA Championship Risers
As is the case every season, the NBA Championship market has fluctuated since the outset. Some teams have seen their odds drop while others have fallen off the board completely. Those losses are outweighed by the teams making a push for this year’s Larry O’Brien Trophy.
San Antonio Spurs
Most notably, the San Anthonio Spurs have been on a skyward path, particularly over the last few months. The Spurs went on an incredible 31-4 run to close out the campaign, watching their championship odds soar each step of the way. A couple of months ago, San Antonio was priced at +2500 to win it all. On the precipice of the first round, they now sit at +450.
Predictably, the Spurs’ movement is backed by a plethora of betting action, most of which is from the sharp side of the spectrum. So far, they are collecting a hefty 20.5% of the bettting handle, despite being written on just 11.9% of the tickets. If you haven’t already, it’s time to start paying attention to what’s happening in San Antonio.
Denver Nuggets
Of course, the Spurs aren’t the only Western Conference team on the rise. The Denver Nuggets are back to full health and have kickstarted their playoff ascent earlier than expected. Riding a 12-game winning streak to the postseason, the Nuggets have become the public darling in this year’s NBA playoffs.
Denver has earned a significant market share, accounting for 10.5% of the betting handle; however, that stands in contrast to its 11.6% ticket. We can infer that the Nuggets are the public horse in this playoff race, validating their slightly longer +1000 odds. Still, that represents a 600-point jump from their mid-season offering of +1600.
Boston Celtics
Finally, the Boston Celtics have been tagged as one of the favorites out East. The Celtics secured the Atlantic Division crown and second seed in the conference, closing out the regular season on a 13-3 run. Like the Nuggets, that has captured the betting public’s attention.
Boston opened as +1600 options in the NBA Championship market, watching its odds steadily increase throughout the year. Ultimately, the Celtics embark on the postseason as +550 frontrunners, albeit without much sharp support. They have accounted for the fifth-highest ticket count at 8.7%, representing just 8.2% of the handle.
In general terms, sharp money has avoided the Eastern Conference. If we’re following the betting money, it could come down to the Celtics or Detroit Pistons.
Big Championship Wagers
At the outset of every playoff run, there are always a few big money wagers that flood that NBA futures market. We’ve already seen a few plus-EV bettors make their plays earlier this season.
Not surprisingly, the Spurs were one of those teams to attract a large sum wager. Before they topped out at +450, one bettor got $50,000 down on the Spurs at +650. It was ideal timing for a team that was on the rise, understanding that closing line value would shift in the bettor’s favor.
Conversely, someone got a piece of the Detroit Pistons when their stock was highest, which has since come down. A few weeks ago, the Pistons were lined as high as +1400; however, the betting market has since adjusted and moved them to +1600. From a betting perspective, that makes the $25,000 wager at +1400 look like a classic misstep.
BetMGM Liability
Considering the dichotomy between Eastern and Western Conference betting, it’s not surprising to see their potential exposure on three teams.
The Spurs’ meteoric rise has exposed BetMGM on several fronts. The shortening of San Antonio’s price didn’t happen fast enough, meaning the sportsbook will be rooting against the Spurs’ continued success in the playoffs.
The Los Angeles Lakers and LA Clippers are also teams that BetMGM will be paying close attention to in the postseason. The loss of Luka Doncic will have a profound impact on the Lakers, but at +25000 and always a public darling, BetMGM will be praying LeBron James doesn’t put the Lakers on his back.
The Clippers have to take the backdoor in via the Play-In Tournament. Still, Kawhi Leonard reserves his best performances for the playoffs, meaning BetMGM may be quick to move their odds if LA starts to rise.
Final Thoughts
The NBA Playoffs are always a magical ride, and basketball bettors and enthusiasts are all aboard. Stay tuned to all the action, as we monitor the betting markets throughout all of the drama and intrigue!
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
