We’re entering the third month of the 2026 MLB season, meaning by the end of June, we will be at the official halfway point of the season. The dog days of summer lie ahead, but we’re not wasting any time in re-evaluating the AL & NL MVP markets.
We’ve got the latest BetMGM data, and there are some pretty clear lines drawn in the betting sand.
American League MVP
Aaron Judge
In a sport with as rich a history as baseball, we’ve seen a new tradition emerge in the American League – Aaron Judge atop the AL MVP futures board.
It has been another incredible year for the New York Yankees’ slugger. While his latest results are more tempered, Judge remains one of the top offensive threats in the league. So far, the two-time defending MVP has accumulated a .554 slugging percentage, with 17 home runs and 27 extra-base hits, yielding 34 RBI and 41 runs scored.
By Judge’s standards, those are more tepid numbers, but there’s reason to believe he reverses his recent downward trajectory. The Yankees’ captain ranks in the 98th percentile or better in expected weighted on-base average, expected slugging percentage, barrel, and hard-hit rates. Moreover, his current slugging percentage remains 70-points below expected, implying we should see a massive swing in his stats as we head into June.
Despite his recent slump, Judge continues to see a positive shift in his MVP betting odds. He opened the season as the +300 favorite and has since moved from -120 to -140 chalk. With 10.2% of the handle coming in on Judge, it will take a mighty effort to dethrone him from his pedestal.
Bobby Witt Jr.
We can’t talk about mighty efforts without including Bobby Witt Jr. in the conversation. The Kansas City Royals’ shortstop is a phenom on both sides of the ball, and could finally get the credit he deserves as the premier player in the American League.
Witt Jr. is up to his usual antics again this season. He remains a premier hitter, with an elite analytics profile, matched by his superb defensive standards. He ranks in the 100th percentile in expected batting average and 94th percentile in expected slugging percentage. More importantly, he’s translated that to 64 hits, nine home runs, 16 stolen bases, and 27 runs scored.
A do-it-all player, many are betting that Bobby Witt Jr. has what it takes to usurp Judge’s MVP crown. He leads the AL with a 15.2% ticket count and 15.0% handle. That split may imply that he’s attracting a sincere amount of public attention, but undoubtedly, sharp bettors are also getting in on the action.
It’s just a matter of time before Witt Jr. claims the MVP, and a significant portion of bettors are expecting that to happen this season.
Yordan Alvarez
While he hasn’t captured the betting market’s attention yet, consider Yordan Alvarez one of the biggest threats to Judge’s reign as AL MVP.
Alvarez is quietly asserting himself as the premier hitter in the MLB. He leads the league with a 1.085 OPS, thanks in part to his 20 home runs and 31 extra-base hits. Further, he’s developed a keener eye at the plate, inducing a career-best .422 on-base percentage.
It would take an historic effort from Alvarez to become just the second player in MLB history to win the MVP as a full-time designated hitter. He’s currently on pace for 56 home runs, which is within striking distance of Judge’s 62 from 2022. If Alvarez reaches that plateau, there will be no denying him this year’s crown.
BetMGM is already limiting its exposure on Alvarez. Formerly a +2800 longshot, the Astros’ slugger has been moved as high as +500. But with only 3.2% of tickets and 2.9% of the handle, clearly, Alvarez hasn’t done enough to sway the sharpest bettors. Keep an eye on him over the coming weeks to see if he can make up more ground on the frontrunners.
National League
Shohei Ohtani
No one can do what Shohei Ohtani is doing. The Los Angeles Dodgers’ dual-threat has won the MVP in four of the past five seasons, finishing second to Judge in the AL in 2022. BetMGM knows what to expect from Ohtani, but that hasn’t stopped the flood of betting action.
Already, Ohtani has moved from -105 to -475 chalk on the strength of 43.0% of the betting handle. He’s reasserted himself as one of the best pitchers on the Senior Circuit, but that may have come at the expense of some of his batting metrics. Through 51 games, the Japanese National has just nine home runs and 22 extra-base hits, yielding a more modest .482 slugging percentage.
Assuredly, Ohtani will find his hitting stride as the season progresses. But if he doesn’t regain his 1.014 OPS form from last season, that could leave the door open for an unexpected contender.
Kyle Schwarber
In terms of betting price, the next closest MVP contender is Kyle Schwarber. Still, sharp bettors are steering clear of the Philadelphia Phillies’ one-dimensional slugger.
Schwarber is used sparingly on defense, usually occupying the DH spot in the Phillies’ batting order. While his defensive profile remains uninspired, Schwarber is a threat every time he steps to the plate. He leads the Majors with 21 home runs and a .604 slugging percentage, driving in 38 and coming around to score 37 more.
That type of production will keep Schwarber in the conversation, but he’ll need to do more to convince sharp bettors he’s worth the investment. So far, the former fourth-overall pick has earned just 1.9% of the betting handle on 4.5% of tickets. A dark horse, for sure, Schwarber’s MVP candidacy could improve the longer he sustains his current form.
Matt Olson
Matt Olson is gaining betting traction. The Braves’ first baseman is having himself another strong year, vaulting Olson into the MVP conversation.
Few players are as reliable as Olson. He’s appeared in 162 games in four straight seasons, recording a 6.0 WAR or better in two of the last three. Further, he’s on track to replicate that success again in 2025. He has an MLB-best 17 doubles, complemented by his 15 homers and 44 RBI. Also a two-time Gold Glover, Olson plays the game the right way on defense, as well.
Olson started the year as a +8000 underdog to win this year’s MVP. He climbed as high as +1100 before falling back down to +1700 this week. Still, sharp bettors can’t get enough of the American, backing Olson with 5.7% of the betting handle compared to just 3.6% of tickets.
These odds aren’t done moving, and we expect Olson to encroach on Ohtani’s territory as the 2026 MLB season continues to unfold.
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