We recently shared the news about Aristocrat Gaming launching a $5 Million Grand Progressive jackpot on a set of new link machines at the Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas (we’re sure the first of many installations that will be seen over time). A player questions what that means for payback:
Isn’t the RTP (return to player) for Megabucks around a pathetic 87%? I can just imagine how much lower this new game’s RTP will be with a $5M reset value…
Joseph H.
You might be surprised to learn that it’s usually not the overall RTP that’s impacted at all. Instead, it’s the award frequency of that particular prize.
Generally, a small percentage of the game’s overall RTP is reserved for progressives. It’s not unusual for 1-2 percent of your overall wagers to be contributed to the progressive prize(s) found on the slot. You can generally work it out by seeing how fast the progressive(s) increment based on how much you’re betting.
Of course, that sliver of the RTP isn’t paid out to all players, but just one. So for the vast majority of players that 1-2 percent deduction comes off the top. And then one lucky players gets a very large chunk of money for that remaining 1 percent. That’s part of the calculus on volatility, as progressives put money in very hard to reach places.
But tweaking a progressive’s starting value can be achieved simply by changing the frequency it’s awarded. When Wheel of Fortune Slots introduced their new $1.125 million starting jackpot, I was told that the RTP was not impacted, only the frequency such a prize would be won. Part of the shift was that as bet sizes grow, the higher progressive seed value can balance out and still be awarded around as often.
So one way this is balanced out is the progressive growing proportionally with the bet size. If you think about a $1 million Dragon Link machine, that progressive is exactly 100x the normal $10,000 starting point on a low limit one. If the bets are exactly 100x bigger, the odds of winning it are the same – you’re basically adding two zeros to the math across the board.
If the bets don’t increase by a similar amount, they can simply tweak the odds based on the bet vs. the top prize. And in that way your odds based on bet amount across any variation of Dragon Link is maintained proportionally.
A lot of research and data has been compiled about optimal RTP on megahits like Dragon Link, and we’ve spoken with people who have done tests and advised casinos on this. There’s a sweet spot – not too low, not too high – where players play longer and casinos make the most money.
We would expect those learnings to extend to the high limit versions as well, with adjustments in RTP made to reflect the larger volume of bets going through such machines, consistent with how casinos set up other high limit machines.
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Someone bought the winning $800 Million, Mega Millions ticket at a Wawa in Bradenton. The RPT for that is over $350 Million lump sum. So, less than half.
Well to be fair, the advertised prize is always based on the cash amount and what it can earn in an investment program to pay the winner over some X years. But most of the time the cash option is chosen, in part because the investments used for the larger prize are always conservative (to ensure the money needed to pay it isn’t lost) whereas a more aggressive investment can likely do better. But between the smaller lump sum and the higher balloon tax payment, it certainly feels like a reduction!