As the Women’s NCAA Tournament storms into the remaining eight teams, the betting market for the national championship has begun to crystallize. With top seeds advancing, a few early exits, and massive momentum swings, sportsbooks have adjusted their odds — and the public has made its betting preferences clear. Here’s an in-depth look at how the futures market has shifted and which teams are attracting the most action.
Line Movement: USC and UCLA Climb, South Carolina Lengthens
Several teams have seen significant movement in their national title odds since the tournament opened:
- USC has moved from +1000 to +550 after impressive wins over Mississippi State and California. With superstar JuJu Watkins suffering a season-ending injury during USC’s win over ninth-seeded Mississippi State in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Monday night, the Trojans were dealt a severe blow but have still seen positive line movement. The Trojans are one win away from the quarterfinals and will face Kansas State on Saturday.
- UCLA: Moved from +1200 to +550 after handling Richmond and setting up a matchup with Ole Miss.
- UConn: Now +280 from +475, continuing to gain respect with dominant wins en route to a matchup against Oklahoma.
- South Carolina: Despite being undefeated, their odds have drifted from +150 to +275, reflecting growing public exposure and a tightening field.
Ticket and Handle Leaders: South Carolina and UConn Take the Lead
Even with the odds moving, the public interest is concentrated mainly around the blue bloods:
Highest Ticket Percentage (Bet Count):
- South Carolina – 15.4%
- UConn – 14.5%
- USC – 11.0%
Highest Handle Percentage (Money Wagered):
- South Carolina – 29.0%
- UConn – 22.3%
- USC – 12.2%
The disparity between ticket and handle percentages on South Carolina indicates sharper or larger wagers backing the Gamecocks, who remain the favorite despite market adjustment.
Biggest Liabilities: Risky Underdogs for Sportsbooks
Several teams have put sportsbooks on alert due to early or sharp betting activity, regardless of current tournament standing:
- NC State: Still alive and gaining steam after routing Michigan State and Vermont. Now set to face LSU.
- Tennessee: Matches up with Texas in the round of 16 as a +8.5-point dog, but early public backing has made them a lingering liability.
- Michigan State: Blown out by NC State in the second round but received enough early interest to still pose a risk.
Remaining Eight Teams Overview: Matchups Set Across All Four Regions
The full eight team field is set with powerhouses, rising stars, and rematches that could swing the futures market:
Spokane Region:
- #1 UCLA vs. #5 Ole Miss
UCLA enters as a 7.5-point favorite after two dominant wins. Ole Miss knocked off Baylor and Ball State to reach this stage. - #2 NC State vs. #3 LSU
LSU will be slight favorites (-2.5) in what may be one of the tightest matchups of the round.
Birmingham Region:
- #1 South Carolina vs. #4 Maryland
South Carolina enters as a 17.5-point favorite. Maryland survived a 2OT thriller against Alabama to earn this shot at the tournament favorite. - #2 Duke vs. #3 North Carolina
A high-stakes Tobacco Road showdown with semifinal implications. Duke is a 5.5-point favorite.
Other Regions (Previously Covered):
- #1 Texas vs. #5 Tennessee
Texas is an 8.5-point favorite. Tennessee remains a liability concern for BetMGM, but Texas remains the stronger side. - #2 UConn vs. #3 Oklahoma
It is one of the most anticipated matchups of the round, featuring two high-powered offenses. - #1 USC vs. #5 Kansas State
USC’s JuJu Watkins’s absence is the story here, and the Trojans are trending heavily in the market despite the line for Saturday’s game OTB. - #3 Notre Dame vs. #2 TCU
Notre Dame is favored by 5.5 points and has looked sharp through the first three rounds.
Where Things Stand
- South Carolina is still the betting favorite, but public and sharp action on UConn, USC, and UCLA has shifted the odds.
- NC State, Tennessee, and Michigan State remain the biggest sportsbook liabilities due to early futures action.
- The last eight teams offers pivotal matchups that could drastically reshape the national title odds.
As the semifinals approaches, expect more sharp movement — both in odds and in the public betting patterns — as title dreams come closer to reality.
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