Table Game Bet Sizes Versus Expected Losses

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Roulette table view from side of the wheel

Las Vegas high rollers have always had access to better games than low-limit players. This may come in the form of better blackjack rules, fewer zeros on a roulette wheel, and different payouts on the baccarat banker bet. Video poker is another example where paytables often improve as the denominations increase. Slot machines can work the same way.

The reasoning behind giving bigger bettors games with lower house advantages is related to the expected win per hand. A player who bets $25 at a game with a 2% house edge theoretically loses the same amount as a $100 bettor at a game with a 0.5% house edge. Each player theoretically loses $0.50 per hand. 

Each game where limits can change the rules is unique. Here are some examples.

Blackjack

The largest rule sets are found at blackjack tables. Blackjack payouts may be 3/2 or 6/5. Double down may be permitted on any first two cards, while some casinos limit it to 9, 10, and 11, or just 10 and 11. Some games do not permit doubling down after splitting. Surrender may or may not be available in six- and eight-deck games. Aces may not be re-split at some games while allowed at others. Most casinos hit soft 17, while looser rules require the dealer to stand on it. 

The table below shows the expected loss for each minimum bet under common rules. Note how higher-limit games can have similar expected loss per hand at the posted minimums as cheaper ones.

6/5 Six-deck Blackjack (no surrender or re-split aces, dealer hits soft 17)

The house edge of a 6/5 blackjack game without surrender or re-split aces is around 2%. It varies slightly depending on if a continuous shuffling machine or cut card is used. Assuming perfect play, the expected loss is $0.02 for every $1 of the original wager. 

The list below shows the theoretical negative expectation per hand on common minimum bets. All theoretical per-hand outcomes are rounded to the nearest penny. 

  • $5: $0.10
  • $10: $0.20
  • $15: $0.30
  • $25: $0.50

3/2 Six-deck Blackjack (surrender, re-split aces, dealer hits soft 17)

The house edge of a 3/2 blackjack game with surrender and re-split aces where the dealer hits soft 17 is about 0.46%. When played perfectly, the player loses just under half a cent per hand for every $1 wagered. The list below shows the expected loss per hand at common limits.

  • $5: $0.02
  • $10: $0.05
  • $15: $0.07
  • $25: $0.12
  • $50: $0.23
  • $100: $0.46

Note that a $50 3/2 player loses about the same on average as a $12 6/5 one. Giving lower-limit players worse rules causes them to lose about as quickly as a player betting four times more at a game that pays 3/2 and loosens the surrender and re-split aces rules. 

3/2 Six-deck Blackjack (surrender, re-split aces, dealer stands on soft 17)

The difference grows when the dealer stands on soft 17, as the house edge drops to 0.29%. The next list shows the expected loss per available minimum bet. The lowest minimum for this game in Las Vegas is $50, but it may be up to $500 on weekend nights at luxury resorts like Wynn. 

  • $50: $0.14
  • $100: $0.29
  • $200: $0.57
  • $300: $0.86
  • $500: $2.85

The $100 player at a 3/2 blackjack table that stands on soft 17 has about the same expected loss as a $15 6/5 one. This player likely gets rated much higher, too, giving them more comps. That increases the return.

Roulette

Las Vegas casinos deal four types of traditional roulette. The options are European, single zero, double zero, and triple zero. European and single zero roulette are virtually the same. The only difference in house advantage is that even-money bets receive half back when zero is called. This is called la partage. 

All other bets have the same house advantage between both games. For math purposes, the holds listed below for European and single zero roulette are for all bets excluding the even-money ones. For double and triple zero, it excludes the basket bet, which covers 0, 00, 1, 2, and 3, and has a higher house edge.

Single Zero Roulette Expected Losses

The minimum bet for single zero roulette in Las Vegas is $25. Its house edge for all bets besides even-money ones is 2.7%. La partage, the half-back rule, drops the house advantage on even-money bets to 1.35%. Plaza in downtown Las Vegas has this game at that price. European Roulette starts at $50. The minimum runs as high as $500 at Wynn. 

  • $25: $0.68
  • $50: $1.35
  • $100: $2.70
  • $200: $5.40
  • $300: $8.10
  • $500: $13.50

Double zero roulette is available at nearly all Las Vegas casinos with live table games. Its house edge is 5.26%. The lowest minimum bet is $2. The highest is typically $50. 

  • $2: $0.11
  • $5: $0.26
  • $10: $0.53
  • $15: $0.79
  • $20: $1.05
  • $25: $1.32
  • $50: $2.63

A double zero roulette player loses almost twice as quickly as a single zero one. It gets worse for triple zero players. 

Most Las Vegas Strip casinos and a few in the downtown and locals markets deal triple zero roulette. Minimums range from $10 to $25. The house edge is 7.69%. 

  • $10: $0.77
  • $15: $1.15
  • $20: $1.54
  • $25: $1.92

The $25 triple zero roulette player loses nearly three times faster than the $25 one at Plaza. Unfortunately, many players do not realize how damaging this game is to bankrolls. Some will play triple zero games when a double zero table next to it has the same minimum bet.

Baccarat

The main difference between baccarat tables in terms of payout is between commission and no-commission games. At a traditional baccarat table, a banker win requires a 5% commission. At no-commission tables, no 5% commission is taken. However, a winning banker hand is changed to a push. In most cases, that is a three-card 7 winner. Some pay only half on a banker winning 6. 

The most common banker change is the winning three-card. That moves the banker bet’s house advantage from 1.06% to 1.46%. The lists below show how that affects different bet sizes. The player bet holds 1.24% at all versions. 

5% Commission Baccarat Banker Win Expected Loss by Bet

  • $10: $0.11
  • $15: $0.16
  • $25: $0.27
  • $50: $0.53
  • $100: $1.06

No-commission Baccarat Banker Win Expected Loss by Bet

  • $10: $0.15
  • $15: $0.22
  • $25: $0.37
  • $50: $0.73
  • $100: $1.46

A no-commission table plays about 50% faster per hour when compared to a traditional game. That accelerates the loss rate. A 5% commission game deals about 40 hands per hour, while a no-commission one gets about 60 hands per hour dealt. The list below shows the expected hourly loss rate using these figures.

5% Commission 

  • $10: $4.40
  • $15: $6.40
  • $25: $10.80
  • $50: $21.20
  • $100: $42.40

No-commission

  • $10: $9
  • $15: $13.50
  • $25: $22.20
  • $50: $44.40
  • $100: $88.80

While these estimations are rounded and may change based on the number of players at the table, the banker bet loses twice as fast in the no-commission game as in the traditional baccarat version.

Playing the Best Games Keeps You in the Game Longer

Table selection is one of the most important skills a player can possess. Finding the best game for your bankroll helps keep you in the game longer. That also increases your chances of winning and may help you build more comps off a lower expected loss. If you play responsibly within your bankroll and avoid bad games, casino play can be a fun hobby that comes with free perks.

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