The royal flush is the highest jackpot in nearly all video poker games. In games without wild cards, it occurs around once every 40,000 hands. It varies slightly depending on how often the player draws to a three-card royal flush over a four-card flush.
As of September 2026, I have made 62 single-line royal flushes. It is across a variety of games, like Joker Poker, Jacks or Better, Bonus Poker, Deuces Wild, Double Bonus Poker, Shamrock 7s, and even one each in Deuces Joker Poker and Tens or Better.
While I have not counted the number of video poker hands I have played, the number is likely in the 2.5 million to 3 million range, based on the likelihood of making a royal flush. While that sounds like a ton of hands, it averages out to about one night out a week over the 16 years I have lived in Las Vegas, and a few of the royal flushes were before moving here.
Royal Flush Variance Is Massive
A royal flush occurs about once every 40,000 hands in video poker games without wild cards. The variant causes the number to vary slightly.
That does not mean that a player is guaranteed to get one every 40,000 hands. Players have about a 37% chance each of having zero, and 37% for exactly one. About 18% of the time, a player will receive two. Three royal flushes in a 40,000-hand cycle occur about 6% of the time, while four or more occur about 2%.
Two theoretical royal flush cycles run about 80,000 hands combined. A player still has a 14% chance of not making one in that window. One royal flush in an 80,000-hand cycle occurs about 27% of the time. Exactly two is also a 27% chance. This means that 41% of the time, a player will have fewer royal flushes than expected over 80,000 hands, and have the proper number or fewer about 68% of the time. Three royal flushes in 80,000 hands has an 18% chance, while four or more happens 13% of the time.
How My Royal Flushes Occurred
I lived in Georgia through 2006. In the late 90s and early 2000s, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina had legal video poker. My first royal flush was in 2005 at a tobacco shop that doubled as a video poker hall. It was dealt to me on a full-pay Tens or Better game on a Pot of Gold machine. My second royal flush came shortly after that at Harrah’s Cherokee.
I moved to a town near Deadwood, South Dakota, in 2006. I did not play as much video poker as live poker was my game of choice. I only hit one video poker royal flush in Deadwood.
After moving to Las Vegas in 2010, I started playing more video poker because there are so many paytables. While over several years I hit around my expected number of royal flushes, I had two massive outliers. In two of those years, I hit 10, including two on the same day twice. In two other years, I hit none. The zero and 10 were in consecutive years in both instances, meaning over two years, I ran about as expected. The royal flushes were just concentrated in a short timeframe.
How Kristina’s Royal Flushes Appeared
My wife, Kristina, plays Deuces Wild. A royal flush cycle is around 45,000 hands, about 5000 more than a typical non-wildcard game. Kristina plays about one-third of the time I do. She plays on medium speed, while I play on the fastest setting.
While we never counted the number of hands she played over the years, it is safe to say she ran significantly on the negative side of variance. Kristina did not hit her first natural royal flush until 2025, 15 years after we moved to Las Vegas. That was a $0.50 royal flush for $2300 at the West Bar at Binion’s. A few weeks later, she hit her second natural at Rampart. It was for just under $1200 on a bar progressive.
A few months later, she hit natural royal flushes on back-to-back visits to Plaza on the same machine. All were on Deuces Wild.
This likely still did not bring her back to the expected number of royals over her life. However, it got her close. Luckily, she has run well on getting four deuces, which is the second-largest payout on Deuces Wild.
This Is Why Playing Within Your Bankroll Is Important
Statistically speaking, it is within reasonable expectation that a weekly player goes years without hitting a royal flush. This is usually 2% of a game’s payback. This makes a 9/6 Jacks or Better game, which typically only has about 0.5% house edge with perfect play and five coins wagered, hold 2.5%. That is five times the expected loss just from not making a royal flush in a session.
It is important to budget for these swings in your bankroll. That is why it is important to have an amount equal to several royal flushes. If you do not have that cushion, you are likely to go broke before ever hitting one.
