We are on the precipice of crowning a new college basketball National Champion. Five gruelling rounds later, we are down to the semifinals. The Arizona Wildcats, Michigan Wolverines, UConn Huskies, and Illinois Fighting Illini are the four remaining titans, looking to punch their way into Monday’s National Championship game.
All of the action goes down at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, and we’re ready for it. Check out our preview and analysis for both of Saturday’s crucial semifinal showdowns.
(1) Michigan Wolverines vs (1) Arizona Wildcats
Spread: Michigan -1.5 (-105) | Arizona +1.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Michigan -125 | Arizona +105
Total: 158.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Assuredly, the winner of this matchup will be installed as the favorite for the National Championship game on Monday. The Michigan Wolverines and Arizona Wildcats are on similar trajectories this season, culminating in a winner-take-all showdown in Indianapolis.
Both the Wolverines and Wildcats entered the college basketball season as afterthoughts in the National Championship race. Michigan was installed as a mid-range +2500 option, with Arizona even further back at +4000. It didn’t take long for both teams to see their odds surge, effectively resulting in these programs being installed as co-favorites partway through the season.
The similarities don’t end there. Michigan and Arizona have built their success on elite defensive play. The Wolverines rank first in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings, giving up a paltry 89.3 points per 100 possessions. The Wildcats are close behind, ranking second at 89.7.
With defense being a priority, the winner of this matchup will be determined by which team makes the most of their offensive opportunities. In that regard, we have more faith in the Big 12 representatives.
Arizona wields a modest advantage in terms of offensive efficiency, turning to interior scoring in contrast to Michigan’s preference for shots from distance. That should result in more second-chance points and free throws for the Wildcats, which will end up being the difference in this one.
It’s a damn shame that this isn’t the National Championship game, because it will undoubtedly come down to the wire. Still, the betting advantage lies in backing Arizona, and they are worthy of the moneyline investment.
Best Bet: Arizona +105
(3) Illinois Fighting Illini vs (2) UConn Huskies
Spread: Illinois -1.5 (-115) | UConn +1.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Illinois -130 | UConn +110
Total: 139.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
There isn’t a true “Cinderella” in this year’s tournament, but the Illinois Fighting Illini are the closest thing to it. The third-ranked Big Ten representatives have gone on a magical run to close out the season, sitting two wins away from the ultimate goal. We expect them to inch closer with a strong showing versus the UConn Huskies on Saturday.
Offensively, no team can hang with the Fighting Illini. They lead KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings, producing 131.7 points per 100 possessions. Implicit in those metrics is its balanced attack, with Illinois able to beat opponents in a number of ways.
Keaton Wagler and Andrej Stojakovic can make it rain from outside, with David Mirkovic standing as an elite producer on the interior. Rather than pushing the pace for more scoring opportunities, the Illini take a systematic approach with the ball in hand, maximizing production when opposing defenses break down.
The Huskies will do their best to contain Illinois’ explosive offense, and they may be able to limit the Illini at times. Still, UConn won’t be able to contain Mirkovic inside. In their Big East Championship loss to St. John’s, forwards Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins combined for 36 points on 70.0% shooting from the floor. While they got past Furman in the opening round of the tournament, Alex Wilkins and Tom House shot the lights out, going 8-for-17 from three-point range.
Clearly, UConn has been susceptible to worse offenses than the Fighting Illini. They will have to pick their poison at Lucas Oil Stadium, and we expect the Huskies to struggle.
At the same time, the Huskies don’t possess the same kind of offensive firepower to keep pace with their semifinal counterparts. UConn’s shooting percentage has fallen to 45.5% over its last three games, representing a substantive departure from its season-long benchmark of 48.1%. With Illinois allowing a 35.6% opponent shooting percentage in the Big Dance, the writing is on the wall for the Huskies.
We’re betting the gap between these teams is more pronounced than the betting line implies. Illinois -1.5 is the play to make.
Best Bet: Illinois -1.5
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