We don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves, but we are speeding toward Conference Tournaments and eventually March Matchups. Peak insanity of the college basketball season lies on the horizon, but that hasn’t stopped some asinine movement in the futures market. The National Championship odds are a shuffleboard of top contenders. While we’ve seen similar movement atop the Wooden Award futures board, one player is emerging as the standout option to be named college basketball’s MVP.
The Clear Frontrunner
Cameron Boozer has cemented his position as college basketball’s presumptive MVP. In his freshman campaign, the Duke standout is already having a banner year. Boozer is tied for the fourth-most points per game, netting 22.9 while simultaneously ranking top 50 in rebounds and field goal percentage. His offensive proclivity knows no bounds, as the NBA progeny also chips in with a respectable 4.2 assists.
Clearly, Boozer’s offensive profile is too much for the betting community to look past. The Blue Devils’ forward started the season with +1200 odds to be named the Wooden Award winner. Over the past week, those odds have plummeted to -220. Carrying an implied probability of 68.8%, this has become Cameron Boozer’s award to lose.
Odds Movement
Like the National Championship market, there is no shortage of movement among the more prominent Wooden Award figures.
Notably, AJ Dybantsa is trending positively as we venture further into conference schedules. The BYU forward has been a scoring machine for the Cougars, averaging 22.9 points per game and knocking down 58.1% of his shot attempts. Combined with his elite rebounding and assist production, Dybantsa’s Wooden Award odds have shortened dramatically. Heading into the second half of the campaign, Bybantsa has moved from +1200 to +225.
The futures market is an unforgiving landscape, and not all movement is positive. Two marquee players have seen their odds increase after worse-than-expected early-season results. Yaxel Lendeborg saw one of the more dramatic dips, going from +2000 to +5000. Similarly, Braden Smith, once considered a Wooden Award frontrunner, has fallen from +500 to +1600.
Reconciling Ticket and Handle
Ticket and handle information is a litmus test for sharp versus public sentiment. With that, we can arrive at some pretty decisive conclusions based on the current betting data from BetMGM.
Specifically, Cameron Boozer is drawing immense sharp action. Heading into the week, the Duke product is collecting a whopping 43.8% of the betting handle. Relative to his 12.5% ticket count, we can infer that many large-sum bettors are getting money down on Boozer to take home the award.
Conversely, Braden Smith has become the staple of public consumption. His futures leading 14.0% ticket count accounts for just 7.6% of the betting handle, reflecting his command over the average bettor and small wagers. The Purdue guard continues to do good things for the Boilermakers, but he’s not close to matching the production of the MVP frontrunners.
BetMGM’s Biggest Liability
Cameron Boozer’s lead isn’t limited to the betting odds or handle. The freshman is also BetMGM’s most notable liability in Wooden Award betting.
Not surprisingly, Boozer’s rapid ascent left sportsbooks holding the bag. A surge of massive wagers at plus-money odds precipitated a seismic shift in the betting odds. But BetMGM couldn’t adjust before the damage was done. Now, they are left rooting against Boozer’s crowning moment.
If Boozer is named the Wooden Award winner, this could be one of the worst results in recent memory for the sportsbook.
Final Thoughts
We are nowhere near the college basketball crescendo, but the betting market has already found its rhythm. Cameron Boozer is twirling the baton at the front of the Wooden Award parade, and the gap between him and the rest of the pack is growing. Public bettors may see value in chasing steam, but the sharpest minds will find value on the other soon-to-be risers. Surely, sportsbooks are hoping one of the other top contenders makes a mid-to-late season push, limiting their exposure on Cameron Boozer.
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