It’s time to acknowledge the agonizing truth of the Super Bowl. There is only one game left in the 2025 NFL season. We can hang our hats on another thrilling campaign that was filled with betting wins, but the smorgasbord of Super Bowl wagering options is about to make us sick.
Every year, the Super Bowl features a bevy of props from before the game even starts until after the final whistle blows. From the length of the national anthem to the color of the Gatorade bath, bettors will have to sift through mountains of data before the big game.
The prop market will be loaded as we approach kick-off. For now, we’re breaking down the initial line movement as the Seattle Seahawks get ready to take on the New England Patriots!
Seattle the Chalky Favorite
As soon as the Seahawks closed out the NFC Championship Game, BetMGM opened its Super Bowl LX betting line. Seattle was installed as -4 favorites, before a wave of action pushed that number higher. Entering today, the Seahawks are lined as -5 chalk, but the persistent action could force that line higher as we inch closer to the game.
As expected, that line movement is captured in both the ticket count and handle. The NFC Champs are commanding 59% of the tickets and 65% of the betting handle. That ratio implies that the sportsbook is taking some big money wagers on the Seahawks to avenge their Super Bowl XLIX.
The opposite is true for New England. While a 41% ticket count is within normal range, the 35% handle reflects smaller, more public sentiment. Bettors are probably keying into the Pats’ relatively easy schedule and virtual free pass into the Super Bowl. New England was barely tested by the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos, but still had to sneak into the grand finale by the skin of their teeth.
The market has settled on the Seahawks as the decisive favorites. That line is bound to climb higher with the non-stop betting action.
Bet on a High-Scoring Affair
As much as the betting market is hammering Seattle, an even more dramatic split is captured on the total. Bettors can’t get enough of the ‘over’, but BetMGM is standing firm on its number.
Seattle is the highest-scoring team this postseason. Through two games, the Seahawks have put up 72 points, sending both contests over the total. That trend extends back to the regular season. At the end of the regular season, the Seahawks ranked seventh in total and third in scoring offense. Predictably, bettors are correlating the total with their position on the Seahawks.
After a couple days of betting, over 70% of the betting handle is coming in on ‘over’ 46. This isn’t a flood of public money either. With 60% of tickets being written on the ‘over’, that difference captures a bevy of high-stakes wagers and public bettors alike.
Despite the avalanche of betting action, BetMGM is holding firm on its number. The total is unmoved, staying firm at 46. All things considered, it’s a curious move. Instead of balancing the sheets with a move upward, the sportsbook must be confident in its evaluation with the total. They are likely counting on the under cashing, or bettors getting stiffed with the total landing exactly on the number, and all bets getting refunded.
Moneyline Mayhem
All of the betting action is succinctly wrapped up in the moneyline data. There is a clear difference between sharp and square, and the sportsbook couldn’t be happier about the action.
New England is the public horse. The Pats’ ticket count is an astounding 66%, albeit accounting for just 36% of the total handle. As inferred, that means that the Seahawks are garnering a 34% ticket count, representing 64% of the money coming in.
Like the total, BetMGM has decided to leave the moneyline prices as is. The Seahawks opened as -235 favorites, corresponding with the Patriots +195 price. Considering the betting splits, they are unlikely to budge, unless a deluge of action comes in on one side exclusively. Otherwise, this is exactly the type of action the sportsbook was hoping for.
Getting Ready for Super Bowl LX
Bettors have two weeks to get ready for Super Bowl LX. We will probably see some adjustments on the spread, but the moneyline is projected to stay close to the opening numbers. If the non-stop influx on the ‘over’ continues, BetMGM might have no choice but to ratchet the total slightly higher.
While all of that is happening, don’t lose sight of the burgeoning prop market. BetMGM will start adding to its portfolio, looking to expand the betting action across all facets of the game. That’s the cue for bettors to take their positions and enjoy the last NFL action of the season.
Stay tuned for more updates as we approach the big game, and always bet responsibly.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
