As is the case with all of the major professional sports leagues, the season is generally separated into first and second halves, usually punctuated by an All-Star Game. That’s not the case in the 2025-26 NHL season, as the players’ wish to participate in the Milan-Cortina Olympics resulted in this year’s festivities getting turfed.
Nevertheless, we’re using this as an inflection point of the season to re-evaluate the futures markets and see what profitable positions we can take ahead of the unofficial second-half.
Player Award Markets
The Hart Trophy
There is a clear frontrunner in this year’s Hart Trophy betting. Nathan MacKinnon stands above the rest, currently leading in ticket and handle and reflecting the sharp and public convergence on him as the best player in the NHL. Predictably, that is captured in the betting market, with the Avs’ captain standing out as a -275 favorite ahead of the break.
While Connor McDavid has surpassed MacKinnon in offensive production, that hasn’t been enough to sway bettors. The Oilers’ phenom has seen a drop in his Hart Trophy odds, going from +200 to +280.
Conversely, Macklin Celebrini has been one of the biggest risers, going from +50000 at the start of the season up to +2000. It’s clear that gap is closing, as Celebrini is BetMGM’s biggest liability heading into the stretch drive.
The James Norris Trophy
The standard for NHL defenseman has evolved. Now, the best rearguards play with untameable offensive abilities, without compromising defensive structure in their own end. In that regard, Cale Makar stands above the rest as the premier defender.
Already a two-time James Norris Trophy winner, Makar leads the pack once again this season. The Avs’ blueliner commands a whopping 49.6% of the betting handle, despite his 17.4% ticket count. As inferred, the sharpest bettors are getting big money wagers on Makar to claim his third accolade in five seasons.
It may be tempting to look at some of the value picks further down the board, but the market direction is clear. Makar, currently priced as -525 chalk, is the presumptive James Norris recipient this season.
The Vezina Trophy
There is a much more wide open race in the Vezina Trophy market. Annually, this trophy is awarded to the most valuable goaltender in the league. Connor Hellebuyck’s reputation has propelled him to the highest handle, but there are several other netminders who could dethrone him for this year’s award.
As it stands, Ilya Sorokin is priced as the odds-on favorite to claim the first Vezina Trophy of his career. The former Vezina Trophy runner-up has been a stalwart in the blue paint for the Islanders, posting six shutouts and a 91.5% save percentage. He poses the biggest threat to Hellebuyck as this year’s winner, and bettors are starting to buy in.
Stanley Cup Futures
This year’s Stanley Cup field is a minefield of top contenders. Eight teams are priced below +2000, with 11 more teams listed below +8000. These odds will continue to shift as teams jockey for position in the standings, but assuredly, there are value picks to be had amongst the lower-priced teams.
As it stands, the Colorado Avalanche stand above the rest. The Central Division leaders and President’s Trophy frontrunners are perched atop the Stanley Cup futures board at +230. From there, the Lightning, Hurricanes, and Golden Knights are priced at +950 or lower. Any one of those squads could go on an extended run, and bettors are quietly taking positions on all four teams.
Still, we can’t discount some of the less renowned contenders. The Minnesota Wild have asserted themselves as a powerhouse and are priced at a more distant +1900. Likewise, the Canadiens have kept pace in the ultra-competitive Atlantic Division but are still listed as +3500 longshots.
We’re also not writing off the Penguins, Red Wings, or Maple Leafs, who are listed at +5000, +5500, and +6000, respectively.
Final Thoughts
With three weeks between NHL games, bettors can plot out their futures bets carefully. However, we can’t discount the impact the Olympic break will have on all of the players. Some will be vacationing, resting, and taking the time to get back to neutral, while many others are competing in the first best-on-best tournament since 2014. Inevitably, that will take a toll on their bodies, which could have devastating impacts on the NHL futures market.
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