The NASCAR season couldn’t have gotten off to a more exhilarating start. Tyler Reddick took the checkered flag at the Daytona 500 last weekend, in a drama-filled race that came down to the wire. Next up, drivers are heading to EchoPark Speedway for the Autotrader 400.
What betting insights can we derive from BetMGM’s latest data?
Top Contender
Tyler Reddick’s win did nothing to boost his betting odds for the third race of the season. Instead, he sits a distant +4000 to some of the other top contenders at the Autotrader 400. There are some familiar names atop the betting board, with some unsuspecting longshots accumulating the most betting action.
Not surprisingly, Ryan Blaney is the odds-on favorite to claim victory on Sunday. He is currently installed as the Autotrade 400 chalk, listed at +850. Despite an influx of sharp bets, that price is actually heading in the opposite direction. Blaney is commanding a notable 9.1% handle share ahead of the weekend, vastly exceeding his 6.7% ticket count. Still, he’s moved from +800 down to his current price. This reverse line movement could be a sign of BetMGM trying to mitigate risk on its biggest liability.
BetMGM’s Biggest Exposure
Everyone is lining up to get a piece of Chase Elliott this weekend. The NASCAR veteran opened as a mid-range +1600 betting option, but was quickly moved down to +1300 due to an influx of cash.
So far, nearly 13.0% of tickets and 16.5% of the handle are being taken on Elliott. That represents significant exposure, as bettors could be in line for significant paydays if the #9 Chevrolet crosses the finish line first.
Naturally, the sportsbook could look to lower Blaney’s price even further, in an attempt to mitigate risk ahead of the green flag.
Public Support
As is the case every weekend, there is no shortage of public cash flowing in. Carson Hocevar has become the beacon for public support in the Autotrade 400, but Christopher Bell and Ross Chastain are also key figures of public support.
Hocevar’s ticket count vs. handle stands out among the trio. His 9.7% ticket count exceeds his 8.9% handle and is indicative of a commonly shared opinion that he could cash as a +2500 longshot. Likewise, Bell’s ticket count is 0.5% above handle, with both coming in below 7.0%. BetMGM is exposed less on Chastain, with the #1 Chevrolet accumulating 3.7% ticket count and 3.4% handle.
Other Sharp Targets
While Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott are commanding the lion’s share of betting action atop the board, several other drivers stand out with sharp splits. Chief among those stands Kyle Larson, who is another top bet to claim his first victory of the season in Hampton, GA.
Larson’s handle is one of the tops this weekend. His 9.0% handle is marginally below Blaney’s 9.1% mark, and significantly higher than his 7.5% ticket count. Similarly, Joey Logano is poised to exceed expectations, as inferred by his 7.0% handle and 5.4% ticket count. Those drivers head into the weekend priced at +1600 and +900, respectively.
Be Ready For Anything
As we saw in the Daytona 500, bettors need to be ready for anything in the Autotrader 400. Last week’s marquee event came down to the stretch, with a handful of cars being in contention until Reddick pulled away just a few yards ahead of the finish line. A similar outcome is expected this weekend, as every driver is still in peak form to start the season.
The advent of live betting has allowed bettors to hedge their wagers in real time. Considering the madness that typically ensues in NASCAR races, that’s a winning strategy every time these cars line up.
With so much value to be had among some of the top contenders, bettors can insulate their
position with a few wagers. Using live betting to hedge those bets could be a long-term winning solution.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
