We may only get five months of NFL football, but the league does an exceptional job of ensuring bettors have plenty to look forward to throughout the year. The next milestone on the horizon is free agency, but soon thereafter, the 2026 NFL Draft will follow.
Assuredly, free agency will precipitate some changes to the Super Bowl odds, but a team’s long-term success is more closely correlated to making the most out of the NFL Draft.
There is a clear frontrunner as the first-overall selection, but that isn’t stopping anyone from taking flyers on some of the other top prospects!
Fernando Mendoza: Consensus First-Overall
Even the uninitiated should recognize the name. Fernando Mendoza is the consensus first-overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft. Mendoza is coming off a Heisman Trophy and National Championship-winning campaign, vaulting himself to the top of the draft board. Standing 6’5” with incredible football IQ, there’s little doubt that the Raiders would use their first-overall selection on anyone else. That’s captured in the betting odds.
When 2026 draft odds were released last year, no one expected Mendoza to be the first name called. The Indiana Hoosiers’ quarterback was a +10000 longshot to be drafted first, with the odds swinging swiftly in his favor. Now listed at -10000, with 14.1% of tickets and 14.5% of handle, Mendoza’s selection is nothing more than a formality to be the first name off the board.
Other Prospects to Consider
Before we take a look at some of the other big names on the draft board, it’s important to consider that these odds have been available for almost a year. As you’ll see, that has precipitated some interesting betting insights ahead of April’s selections.
Most notably, Rueben Bain Jr. leads in ticket count and handle. The Hurricanes’ edge rusher had a standout campaign, but was surpassed by some of the other prospects who had wildly successful campaigns. Still, at the start of the season, Bain Jr. was widely considered to be the top contender in the draft. With that, 17.6% of the tickets and 17.2% of the money are coming in on the edge rusher to hear his name called first.
Similarly, Arvell Reese has seen a meteoric rise up the draft board. Up until this season, the Buckeyes’ linebacker was a relatively unknown commodity. He was deployed more sparingly in 2024, before evolving into an every-down stalwart as a junior. Clearly, Reese caught the attention of bettors, earning an 11.2% market share in terms of betting handle to be drafted first overall.
The Curious Case of Drew Allar
This wasn’t the season that Drew Allar envisioned for himself. The Penn State Nittany Lions’ quarterback had an unsuccessful senior campaign, precipitating his downfall on the betting board.
When 2026 NFL Draft odds were released, Allar was the presumptive first-overall selection. He opened at +350 but has cascaded to an unfathomable +50000. Prior to the season, Allar was obviously commanding a lot of respect from bettors, earning a 16.8% handle to be selected first.
Those tickets are essentially worthless, as Allar is now the fifth-ranked quarterback in the class.
The Second-Overall Selection
There may be a clear favorite, but the second-overall selection is a much more wide-open race. Arvell Reese is the chalky pick to go after Mendoza, but several other players have seen big moves up the board.
So far, the Buckeyes’ linebacker is commanding an eye-popping 49.2% of the betting handle to be drafted second. Naturally, that correlates with a draft-leading ticket count and a sharp decrease in the betting price. Previously priced at +200, Reese is now the -155 favorite to go second.
Still, there is some debate among bettors. Bain Jr. ranks second in ticket and handle, 16.1% and 10.4%, respectively, but is holding steady at +500 as the second pick. David Bailey is the dark horse in this race, going from +500 to +225, on the strength of the third-highest betting handle (7.7%).
Things Can Still Change
While we’re unlikely to see any significant changes in the market, we’re still anticipating movement. Prospects will have the chance to showcase their skills at the NFL Combine and Pro Day workouts, potentially earning more respect from teams along the way.
The other factor worth considering is the trade market. Players’ anticipated draft positions will change based on team need. So if the Jets trade out of the second-overall pick, we could see a team move up to grab Rueben Bain Jr. or David Bailey, instead.
As is the case with any market, bettors need to keep an eye on all the line movement. Injuries, rumors, trades, or combine performances will all be a factor in which players are drafted in Pittsburgh.
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