It happens periodically throughout the year, but Champions League action precipitated a pause in the European league soccer schedules. The second-leg playoffs were nothing short of sensational, but now teams and players are gearing back up for domestic league play. The English Premier League kicks things back off with a Friday contest, before resuming with a full slate of action over the weekend.
With that, it’s an ideal time to reevaluate the futures market to determine profitable in-roads. Let’s analyze the BetMGM data and see where all of the betting action is concentrated.
Arsenal Gunning for Top Spot
Barring an unforeseen run up the standings, the EPL winner is down to two teams – Arsenal and Manchester City. Amongst those two contenders, there is no consensus among sharp bettors on which team has the best chance of claiming this year’s banner. Still, the betting data suggests that the Gunners are attracting an increased share of sharp money.
Heading into March, Arsenal is collecting the second-highest handle among English Premier League teams. Their 20.8% betting handle trails only Man City, but relative to their 16.6% ticket count, it’s safe to assume that more large money wagers are coming in on the Gunners.
The same is true for the Citizens. Man City’s 24.0% handle trumps that of Arsenal and represents a similar proportion relative to ticket count. Their 20.1% ticket count comes in short of the handle, implying that sharps are almost equally split between the top two teams.
Current Betting Prices
Arsenal has seen a dramatic swing in its betting price, but the Gunners’ advantage in the standings isn’t as pronounced as the betting market implies.
BetMGM has moved Arsenal significantly off its former price. Previously priced behind Man City at +250, the Gunners have moved to hefty -200 favorites. In an attempt to limit its exposure, the sportsbook has also adjusted Manchester City’s odds, albeit more modestly. The Citizens have decreased from +250 to +225.
Man City trails Arsenal by six points in the standings, with a game in hand. With these teams facing off at Etihad Stadium in mid-April, the Citizens could easily tilt the betting odds in their favor before the end of the season.
Relegation Market Analysis
The beautiful part of the European standings is that there are inevitably races on both ends of the table. While bettors are fawning over Arsenal and Manchester City as the EPL winner, a more competitive battle is playing out at the bottom of the table.
As is the case every year, three EPL teams will face relegation to the English Championship at the end of season. Assuredly, Wolverhampton (-20000) and Burnley (-5000) are destined for the second-tier league. But there are several teams in the running for the final relegation spot.
Currently, West Ham United holds the perilous 18th spot in the standings. Nottingham Forest is two points clear of the drop zone, with formerly top-ranked Tottenham just four points clear, and Leeds United six points up.
Tottenham Not-So-Hotspurs
For reference, the Hot Spurs opened the season as +4000 longshots to be relegated at the end of the campaign. Now, they are priced at a much more concerning +400. Predictably, that correlates with an influx of cash, with Tottenham earning an 11.1% ticket count and 10.0% of the handle.
Betting Consensus on Top Goalscorer
Several races are playing out at the top and bottom of the standings, a departure from what we’re seeing in the top goalscorer market. Erling Haaland opened as the favorite to claim that distinction. Like his goal scoring total, Haaland’s betting price continues to soar.
When the season kicked off in August, Haaland was the presumptive EPL Golden Boot contender at +125. As it stands, the Man City striker is listed at a chalky -1200. With 22 goals in 27 matches, Haaland is five clear of second-place Igor Thiago and nine up on third-place Antoine Semenyo.
The betting data supports that advantage should continue to grow over the final few months of the season. Haaland is commanding an eye-popping 69.5% of the betting handle, confidence that is matched with his on-field play.
Plus-EV Betting In-Roads
With races playing out at across the league, there are plenty of plus-ev betting in-roads for sharp and public bettors. The race between Arsenal and Manchester City atop the table could tilt in any direction over the final 10-games of the season.
Similarly, there will be a fierce battle among several teams looking to avoid relegation. Injuries, scheduling snafus, or deteriorating form will all be factors in which team is sent down to the English Championship next season.
Finally, there’s an argument to be made that Erling Haaland’s chances of claiming the EPL Golden Boot vastly exceed the implied probability of his current betting price.
It’s easy to get lost in the betting markets of the Big Four North American sports leagues. Don’t forget, the money to be made overseas is just as green.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
