Suffice it to say, we are in the stretch drive of the 2025-26 NBA season. The regular season concludes on April 10, leaving teams just a couple of days to gear up for their respective playoff pushes.
Between now and then, several betting markets will continue to evolve. The NBA MVP will be determined, teams will solidify their playoff seeds, and the NBA Championship market could have a new frontrunner.
Let’s assess the current state of the NBA futures markets.
NBA Most Valuable Player
Now sitting just three games shy of Wilt Chamberlain for the most consecutive 20-point efforts, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the chalky favorite to repeat as NBA MVP. This back-to-back trend has emerged as a reliable trend in recent years, but there are a few considerations that need to be made before the playoffs.
Most notably, the NBA implemented a minimum games played threshold that every player has to meet to be eligible for year-end awards. SGA is wandering perilously close to that 65-game threshold.
Heading into tonight’s contest, the reigning MVP has appeared in 51 games for the Thunder. OKC has played 62 games, meaning Gilgeous-Alexander can’t miss more than six games, otherwise, he will be ineligible for MVP consideration. Still listed on the injury report, SGA will need to persevere through his abdomen injury to stay in the conversation.
Realistically, only Nikola Jokic can catch Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the MVP race. The Nuggets’ star player has dealt with his own share of absences this season, and the betting price reflects that deficit. As it stands, SGA is priced as the -300 favorite, with Jokic coming in at +300.
If the injury bug rears its ugly head, look to Cade Cunningham or Victor Wembanyama as longshot contenders.
Western Conference Contenders
The Western Conference futures betting mirrors what we’re seeing in the MVP race. The Oklahoma City Thunder have emerged as the outright favorites, with the Denver Nuggets chasing their division rivals for top spot. But unlike MVP betting, the San Anthonio Spurs have a legitimate path to toppling both teams come the playoffs.
OKC has led the betting pack since the start of the season, reinforcing their position with sustained elite play. The defending champs started as +125 favorites, moving to -120 over the past few weeks. With that, they continue to attract 12.4% of the ticket count and 16.5% of the handle, both of which trail the public darling.
So far, the Spurs have become a staple of public investment, attracting a hefty 23.2% ticket count while accounting for just 21.3% of the total money bet. Similarly, the Nuggets are on the public end of the spectrum, as reflected in their 15.5% ticket and 10.3% handle counts.
Both teams are holding steady at their respective betting prices of +550 and +360, but both are capable of potentially upending the Thunder in the postseason.
Even Eastern Conference
Parity is the name of the game in the Eastern Conference, with four teams separated by just 125 betting points. Assuredly, playoff seeding and matchups will be a factor, but any of the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, or New York Knicks can go on an extended playoff run.
Heading into the final six weeks of the season, the Celtics are the betting favorites. Their price has gone from +550 at the start of the season to the +275 on the current futures board. Captured in that is 15.4% of the ticket count and 13.7% of the handle, reflecting more public involvement.
Likewise, the Cavs and Knicks have received a significant amount of public endorsement. Cleveland’s 13.5% ticket count exceeds its 10.4% handle, with New York accounting for a slightly more balanced split at 12.6% and 11.9%.
Amongst all of this public action, the Pistons stand out as the premier landing spot for sharp money. While their 26.5% ticket count is nothing to scoff at, that number is dwarfed by the Pistons’ 48.7% handle.
Clearly, the sharpest bettors are lining up to get a piece of Detroit. But with the Pistons priced at +350, Knicks at +400, and Cavaliers at +350, it’s anyone’s guess which team prevails in the East.
NBA Championship Betting
It’s not surprising to see how this betting data is encapsulated in the NBA Championship futures market. The Thunder, Nuggets, and Spurs lead the way at +150, +700, and +750, respectively. Those teams are followed by the Eastern Conference quartet of Boston (+1000), Cleveland (+1000), Detroit (+1300), and New York (+1700).
Surely, these lines will continue to move as we approach the postseason. The sharpest bettors will have an expanded portfolio and will be ready to hedge when the opportunities present themselves.
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