Every year, the NHL Trade Deadline impacts the futures market. Teams load up on talent or identify a key positional player, which inevitably impacts their playoff and Stanley Cup odds. That will be the case again in 2025-26, with teams finalizing their rosters ahead of Friday’s deadline.
The impact on awards betting is less impactful. Still, adding a key piece upfront or defensive stalwart will undoubtedly impact some of the key races down the stretch.
We’re evaluating the current state of the market, and predicting which players could rise in the post-trade deadline world!
Hart Trophy – NHL MVP
Annually, the NHL hands out the Hart Trophy to the most valuable player in the league. With just over a month to play, this has become Nathan MacKinnon’s award to lose.
MacKinnon continues to guide the Colorado Avalanche to a league-best record. The Central Division leaders are the odds-on favorites to claim the President’s Trophy and continue to reside atop the Stanley Cup futures board. However, MacKinnon has been usurped by Connor McDavid as the league’s top scorer, and we could see the Oilers’ captain close the gap over the final few weeks of the season.
Edmonton has been one of the most active teams ahead of the trade deadline. While their potential moves might not have a direct impact on McDavid’s production, balancing their scoring could result in more playing time with the Oilers’ top producers.
Currently, MacKinnon is priced as the -155 favorite, on the back of 29.5% of the betting handle. McDavid ranks behind Macklin Celebrini and Nikita Kucherov. Celebrini has taken the league by storm this season, while Kucherov has quietly asserted himself as the premier player in the Eastern Conference. The Sharks’ phenom checks in at +475, Kucherov at +280, and McDavid at +600.
Vezina Trophy – Best Goalie
Of all the NHL awards to bet one, the Vezina Trophy is the most unpredictable. Since 2008, there has been only one back-to-back winner, and that was Connor Hellebuyck over the past two seasons. Hellebuyck’s Olympic achievements were monumental, but he’s given way to Andrei Vasilevskiy in the betting market.
Not so long ago, Vasilevskiy was priced as a plus-money contender, but not the favorite. Thanks in part to his torrid play, the Lightning goalie has surpassed Ilya Sorokin as the chalky -130 favorite.
Vasilevskiy is attracting nearly 20.0% of the betting handle, over a 6% jump from Sorokin’s 13.5% handle. As inferred, Vasilevskiy is the guy to beat.
James Norris Trophy – Best Defenseman
Every so often, a generational talent comes along and reinvents the defenseman role. Cale Makar is that guy, but his standing as the best rearguard in the NHL has waned. That’s opened the door for a number of contenders to claim this year’s James Norris Trophy.
This is the only award with a plus-money offering for the top contender. As it stands, Zach Werenski is priced as the favorite (+100), but the gap between him, Makar, and Evan Bouchard continues to shrink.
Most notably, Bouchard’s price has plummeted from +3500 to +600 on just 2.9% of the handle. Clearly, BetMGM is hoping to limit its exposure on the Oilers’ defender, ahead of the final push. If Edmonton adds another competent blueliner at the trade deadline, it could allow Bouchard to flourish over the final quarter of the season. BetMGM might be expecting as much, as inferred by the dramatic decrease in betting price.
Makar remains the sharp-backed candidate, earning 33.5% of the handle, but Werenski and Bouchard are closing hard.
Calder Memorial Trophy – Rookie of the Year
This year’s rookie crop is headlined by all-world defenseman Matthew Schaefer, who has emerged as the presumptive Calder Memorial Trophy winner at the end of the season.
Schaefer’s betting price has soared. At the start of the year, he was priced behind several players at +1300. Currently, he’s listed at -10000, reflecting his dominant rookie campaign. The Islanders’ defenseman plays a similar brand of hockey to Cale Makar and is positioned for long-term success in the NHL.
Unsurprisingly, Schaefer is commanding a hefty 30.8% handle in the betting market, despite being written on just 11.0% of the tickets. That betting confidence is unmatched across the field, meaning it’s just a formality before Schefer is crowned Rookie of the Year.
NHL Trade Deadline Impact
It remains to be seen how big an impact the trade deadline will have on the awards betting market. However, we’re not discounting a few significant moves before the end of the season. Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard’s fortunes could be tied to the moves the Oilers make, but even a guy like Andrei Vasilevskiy or Cale Makar stand to benefit from some bolstering on the backend.
We’re keeping a close eye on things ahead of the NHL Playoffs. Stay tuned for more betting updates as the NHL futures markets continue to evolve in the post-trade deadline world.
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