Four months of college basketball action later, it all comes down to this. Some teams are already in the midst of their conference tournaments, and others are about to get started. With that, bubble teams will rise to the top while others will see their bubbles burst over the next few days.
Let’s take a look at the Power 4 conference tournaments, looking at draws and predicting which teams have the best shot of closing out the season on a high note!
ACC
Once a dominant basketball conference, the ACC has been diluted to a handful of teams tring to catch the Duke Blue Devils. We expect that narrative to play out in the conference tournament, with only a couple of teams able to keep pace with the perennial contenders.
Not surprisingly, Duke enters the weekend as prohibitive -290 favorites. There are really only two teams that may be able to catch the Blue Devils for the ACC Tournament crown – the Virginia Cavaliers and the Louisville Cardinals.
In terms of efficiency, Louisville (14th) has a slight advantage over the Cavaliers (20th) in the KenPom rankings; however, both teams are well short of the top-ranked Blue Devils (1st).
The Cavaliers also have a more favorable draw. Seeded second, Virginia was granted a free pass to the quarterfinals. Conversely, Louisville needs to get past SMU in the second-round before carrying on into the quarters.
Clearly, this is Duke’s tournament to lose. But some bettors may be willing to roll the dice on Louisville, hoping they get hot in the final and upend the Blue Devils’ ACC treble.
Predicted Winner: Duke Blue Devils (-290)
Big 12
There’s a lot more to be decided in the Big 12. The Arizona Wildcats are deserving favorites, but as we saw down the stretch, this team is not infallible. Three teams are ranked in the top seven in KenPom efficiency, Arizona, the Houston Cougars, and Iowa State Cyclones.
The Wildcats excel on both ends of the court, but they dropped decisions to Texas Tech and Kansas over the past few weeks. They gave up 80.0 points per game in those losses, a substantial deviation from their 68.6 season-long average.
Houston and Iowa State play a similar brand of defensively elite basketball. Still, they don’t possess the same offensive proficiency as the top-ranked Wildcats. The Cyclones were handed a one-sided defeat at the hands of the Wildcats, pointing toward the Cougars as the only team capable of usurping Arizona.
Houston’s offense is getting hot at the right time, and we trust in Kelvin Sampson. We’re counting on the Cougars to upset Arizona in the Big 12 Tournament.
Predicted Winner: Houston Cougars (+220)
Big Ten
Like the ACC, there is a clear frontrunner in the Big Ten Tournament. The Michigan Wolverines have cemented their position as the premier team in the conference and a National Championship contender. Still, there are several Cinderellas getting their dancing shoes ready.
From a betting perspective, the Illinois Fighting Illini are the biggest threat to the Wolverines. They have the second-shortest odds on the board, coming in at +390. However, we’re anticipating a monumental performance from the Michigan State Spartans in Chicago.
Michigan State’s defense is vastly superior to the Fighting Illini. The Spratans ranke eighth in KenPom’s defensive efficiency, whereas the Illinois is a more distant 26th.
It will take a monumental effort, but our money is on Michigan State to derail the Wolverines’ championship aspirations.
Predicted Winner: Michigan State Spartans (+550)
SEC
The Florida Gators have reclaimed their mantle as a basketball superpower. That’s reflected in their SEC Tournament and National Championship odds.
There are a handful of teams that can hang with the Gators, but none that can challenge Florida for the tournament banner. Arkansas stands as the biggest threat, but they sit a distant +600 compared to Florida’s -185 price. From there, Alabama (+750), Tennessee (+950), and Vanderbilt (+1200) are the challenges for the SEC crown.
No one is catching Florida in the SEC. Their chances of winning exceed the implied probability of the betting odds, meaning the Gators are the only bet to make in the SEC.
Predicted Winner: Florida Gators (-165)
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