The 2026 World Baseball Classic round robin drew to a close this week, but not without its fair share of drama. Team USA dropped an unexpected loss to Italy, needing another Italian win versus Mexico to assure it’s spot in the knockout round. Likewise, Canada needed a clutch win over favored Puerto Rico to clinch top spot in Group A, there was a three-way tie for second place in Group C, and the Dominican Republic and Venezuela battled it out for Group D supremacy in the round robin finale.
The dust has finally settled, and the quarterfinal matchups are set for this weekend. Let’s run through the betting odds and see where the value lies!
Korea vs Dominican Republic
Friday, March 13 – 6:30 pm ET
loan Depot Park – Miami, FL
Dominican Republic (-1100)
Korea (+680)
Total 10.5 – Over (-105) Under (-115)
Inarguably, the Dominican Republic looked like the most dominant team in the round robin, and that’s reflected in its betting odds. DR shot to the top of the futures board, and is now listed as the second-favorite to claim this year’s banner. Their path to the WBC championship starts with a quarterfinal showdown versus Korea.
Offensively, everything is going right for the Dominicans. They put up 41 runs in four preliminary games, hitting double-digits in all but one of those contests. With seven different players going yard and RBI potential loaded throughout their lineup, there’s nothing Korea can do to slow the Caribbean nation down.
The Dominican Republic’s path to the semifinals is nothing more than a formality. Expect another convincing win in Miami.
USA vs Canada
Friday, March 13 – 8 pm ET
Daikin Park – Houston, TX
USA (-900)
Canada (+590)
Total 9.5 – Over (-114) Under (-106)
Some people may have expected this matchup, but definitely not under these circumstances. Canada enters as the top seed, but that’s done nothing to slow USA’s betting momentum. The Americans opened as -800 chalk, but the price continues to soar as we approach first pitch. Still, the Canadians could offer more resistance than anticipated.
Canada’s pitching has been an unsuspecting strength in this year’s tournament. Collectively, their staff gave up just 10 runs in four round robin games, with all but one of those teams being held to two runs. Moreover, Canada’s scrappy, MLB-laden lineup has gotten offensive production from top to bottom.
It won’t be enough to pull off the outright upset, but the Canadians can give the Americans more than anticipated. Backing them to cover the +4.5 run line at plus-money is the play to make.
Puerto Rico vs Italy
Saturday, March 14 – 3 pm ET
Daikin Park – Houston, TX
Puerto Rico (-118)
Italy (-102)
Total N/A
Undoubtedly, Italy was the biggest surprise of the preliminary stage. The Group B winners went undefeated in group play, cruising to convincing wins in all four outings. However, they’re still priced as underdogs in Saturday’s clash versus Puerto Rico.
Everything went right for Italy to open the tournament. They tallied 32 runs, scoring no fewer than seven in any one of their contests. At the same time, they gave up only 11 runs, most of which came against the Americans after they built an eight-run lead. Puerto Rico was much less effective, scoring just 15 runs in Group A.
Italy needs to sort out its starting pitcher for Saturday. Irrespective of who it is, we predict the Italians will be up to the challenge in Houston. At an underdog price, the Italians are worth the investment.
Venezuela vs Japan
Saturday, March 14 – 9 pm ET
loan Depot Park – Miami, FL
Japan (-170)
Venezuela (+130)
Total 7.5 – Over (-112) Under (-108)
The quarterfinals conclude with a Saturday night battle between defending champion Japan and a feisty Venezuela side. The betting line has the Japanese out in front, but its chances of winning are far greater than the line implies.
Japan’s pitching has been some of the best in the tournament. They gave up nine runs in the round robin, with six of those coming versus Korea. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the probable starter on Saturday, and he will be too much for the Venezuelans to handle. The Group D runner-ups totaled just nine runs over their last two games, while getting out-hit in both contests.
Travel may be a factor, but there’s no denying Japan’s baseball superiority. At -170, they are a worthy bet to punch their way into the semis.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
