The Men’s college basketball tournament continues with the first set of round of sixteen games going down on Thursday night. It’s a chalky schedule, with six of the top eight seeds taking to the court. But as we saw last weekend, no team is immune from the madness this time of year.
Let’s run through all four games, highlighting our favorite betting picks from each contest!
(11) Texas Longhorns vs (2) Purdue Boilermakers
Spread: Texas +7.5 (-110) | Purdue -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Texas +280 | Purdue -360
Total: 147.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
The Texas Longhorns are one of the two ‘Cinderellas’ left in the Big Dance. With that, their analytics profile puts them at a sincere disadvantage versus the Purdue Boilermakers on Thursday night.
The Longhorns’ defensive rankings are the worst of any team left in the tourney. They rank 81st in KenPom’s defensive efficiency, giving up 104.2 points per game per 100 possessions. While they were able to offset those shortcomings versus NC State, BYU, and Gonzaga, they face a new challenge in trying to contain the Boilermakers.
Purdue rates as the best offensive team in the country. According to KenPom, their 131.9 offensive efficiency rating is the best among any college basketball team, putting Texas at a sincere disadvantage in San Jose.
Texas has outperformed its metrics, but the Longhorns’ glass slipper is about the fall off. We’re using this spot to back the favored Boilermakers in the round of sixteen.
Best Bet: Purdue -7.5
(9) Iowa Hawkeyes vs (4) Nebraska Cornhuskers
Spread: Iowa +1.5 (-110) | Nebraska -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Iowa +110 | Nebraska -130
Total: 131.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Inarguably, the Iowa Hawkeyes vs the Nebraska Cornhuskers is the biggest grudge college sports purists are looking forward to in Round 3. These Big Ten rivalries have a decorated history across all sports, making this today’s must-watch matchup.
The ninth-ranked Hawkeyes have been on a spectacular run. They easily cashed as -1.5 chalk versus Clemson in the opening round, dethroning the defending champion Florida Gators in Round 2. Iowa relies on a balanced attack, ranking top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency, and will look to score from the interior to knock off the Cornhuskers.
Nebraska survived a scare in th second round, watching a potential game-winning buzzer-beater clank off the rim twice before breathing a sigh of relief. They rely on defensive acumen to win games, ranking a distant 51st in offensive efficiency and 146th in point per game.
As inferred by the betting line, this should be a close contest that comes down to the final buzzer. Still, we give the edge to the underdog Hawkeyes, expecting them to prevail in a low-scoring affair.
Best Bet: Iowa +110, Under 131.5
(4) Arkansas Razorbacks vs (1) Arizona Wildcats
Spread: Arkansas +7.5 (-110) | Arizona -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Arkansas +290 | Arizona -380
Total: 165.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
The Arizona Wildcats remain one of the most heavily backed contenders in the National Champions market. They will be put to the test, as they try and get past an upstart Arkansas Razorbacks squad in San Jose.
Arizona is one of the most efficient teams in both ends of the court. Their 127.9 offensive efficiency ranks fourth in the country, while their 90.1 defensive efficiency ranks third. The Razorbacks may be able to breakthrough on offense, but they will struggle to contain the Wildcats’ explosive offense.
Arkansas abandons any semblance of defensive coverage in favor of more scoring opportunities. They have given up 82 or more points in five of eight, which will be their undoing versus Arizona. That inefficiency is best captured in their 51st defensive ranking.
The Wildcats will score at will, forcing the Razorbacks to try and keep pace. In the end, we predict a convincing Arizona win and a game that soars over the total.
Best Bets: Arizona -7.5, Over 165.5
(3) Illinois Fighting Illini vs (2) Houston Cougars
Spread: Illinois +2.5 (-110) | Houston -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Illinois +135 | Houston -155
Total: 140.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Tonight’s schedule concludes with a pivotal showdown in Houston. That puts the Illinois Fighting Illini at a significant disadvantage, as they try to upend the Houston Cougars.
It may feel like an away game, but the Fighting Illini will be up to the task. They rank prominently in most analytics categories, albeit with distinctive offensive advantages. Illinois averages close to 85.0 points per game, relying on elite three-point shooting to win games.
The Cougars will need to extract every ounce of effort on defense to contain their round of sixteen opponents. Thankfully, they should be up to the task. Houston ranks fourth in defensive efficiency, and has limited three of its last four opponents to 57 points or fewer.
Try as they may, the Fighting Illini face a sincere challenge in penetrating Houston’s defensive fortress. Assuredly, this one is destined for a close finish, but we still have the Cougars prevailing.
Best Bet: Houston -155
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