There has been no shortage of madness in this year’s college basketball tournament. From buzzer-beaters, to overtime, to longshots knocking off some of the top contenders, we are now down to the semifinals.
Arizona, Michigan, UConn, and Illinois don’t take to the court at Lucas Oil Stadium until Sunday, but that hasn’t stopped the futures market from churning. Let’s take a look at the futures board and see where the semifinal teams are sitting.
National Championship Odds
Once a field of over 300 teams, we have seen a dramatic shift in the betting odds since the outset of the season. While the tournament results have precipitated more modest movement, there is still a clear line in the sand with respect to the top contenders.
Michigan Wolverines
Not surprisingly, the Michigan Wolverines continue to rank as the odds-on favorite to win this year’s natty.
Michigan wasn’t always considered a favorite to go on a run this year. At the start of the year, they were priced as mid-range +2500 options, well behind some of the other notable Big Ten programs. A hot start to the season and a nearly immaculate run through their conference schedule had vaulted the Wolverines to the top of the futures board. Heading into the final three games of the season, that’s where they continue to stand. As it stands, Michigan is priced as the +165 favorite to finish its season as champs.
For all of their accolades, this is still a team that underachieves in the betting market. While they are on a 4-1 through the tournament, the Big Ten regular season champs are still a lackluster 18-20 against the spread. That could come back to haunt the Wolverines as short -1.5 favorites versus Arizona in the semifinals.
Arizona Wildcats
Like their counterparts, the Arizona Wildcats have seen a meteoric rise up the National Championship futures board. Formerly an afterthought in the Big 12, the Wildcats evolved into one of the premier teams in the country.
Before the season began, Arizona was a distant +4000 to win this year’s championship. With only two losses on the season, which came by a combined seven points in conference play, there’s no disputing their championship acumen.
Heading into this weekend’s action, the Wildcats are slightly behind the Wolverines on the betting board. They register at +180, representing over a 30.0% shift in terms of implied probability. At +4000, Arizona had a 2.4% chance of winning it all, now they have a 35.7% chance. That confidence is reflected in a number of large money wagers that continues to flow in on the Big 12 champs.
Illinois Fighting Illini
As good as the teams around them are, there’s an argument to be made that the Illinois Fighting Illini are the hottest team in the Big Dance.
Illinois has always gotten credit for its offensive accomplishments, but its defense has stole the show in the tournament. The Fighting Illini have held their last three opponents to a combined 159 points on 35.6% shooting, with none of those teams eclipsing 59 points. Still, that hasn’t come at the expense of offensive efficiency. The Big Ten representatives have maintained their usual scoring standards, shooting 46.3% from the floor over their last three and surpassing 70 points in two of those contests.
The Fighting Illini are riding a wave of momentum into the semifinals, and that’s captured in their betting odds. Formerly a +6000 longshot, Illinois is priced at +475 to conclude their National Championship run. If defense wins championships, the Fighting Illini need to be taken seriously.
UConn Huskies
The Big East doesn’t get the credit it deserves for producing championship-caliber programs. Chief among those stand the UConn Huskies, who are looking to claim their third title in four years.
Unlike the other three teams, the Huskies were always expected to be here. The blue blood program opened as short +1400 contenders for this year’s natty. But unlike those other programs, the Huskies’ haven’t seen a dramatic rise up the board.
Despite its recent successes, UConn heads into the semifinals with the longest odds in the market. They are currently listed as +550, representing a 15.4% implied probability. Considering their position as +1.5 in Saturday’s tilt versus Illinois, there could be immense value in taking a position on the Huskies.
Final Thoughts – Betting Strategies
The remaining games set up nicely for value bettors. The two longest odds face off on one side, with the two chalky favorites in the other matchup. With that, Illinois or UConn will see a massive shift in their odds before the National Championship Game. Taking a position on either/or both, could leave bettors with a solid hedging opportunity heading intoo the final.
There’s more than one way to skin a cat in this industry. Hedging may not be for everyone, but finding a way to insulate futures positioning based on current odds or game lines is the most valuable strategy.
If nothing else, the last three games of the college basketball season should be as entertaining as the first four rounds of the tournament. We’re here for all of the excitement, ready to crown this year’s National Championship.
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