The college basketball National Champion will be crowned on Monday night.
This year’s College Basketball Tournament has been sensational, albeit with the semifinal matchups falling short of that dramatic standard. The Michigan Wolverines dog-walked the Arizona Wildcats, building a 16-point first-half lead and cruising to a 91-73 win. While the UConn Huskies fended off a late-game charge from the Illinois Fighting Illini, they were able to punch their ticket to their third championship game in four seasons.
Those waves collide in what should be an instant classic at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Wolverines are chalky -6.5 favorites, but the Huskies won’t go down without a fight.
(1) Michigan Wolverines vs (2) UConn Huskies
Spread: Michigan -6.5 (-119) | UConn +6.5 (-104)
Moneyline: Michigan -295 | UConn +255
Total: 145.5 Over (-105) | Under (-115)
No Holes in Michigan’s Game
Michigan has been virtually unstoppable all season. Riding an impressive 36-3 record, the Wolverines’ three losses have come by a combined 16 points. As we saw in Saturday’s shellacking of the Wildcats, they operate efficiently in both ends of the court.
Through the first five rounds of March Matchups, Michigan has held its opponents to an average of 72.8 points per game and a paltry 37.9% field goal percentage. More impressively, that benchmark has plummeted as the tournament goes on. Their last three opponents have shot a combined 75-for-216 from the field for a laughable 34.7% field goal percentage.
All of that without compromising on offense. The Wolverines have been on the prowl in the big dance, averaging 94.4 points per game while recording no fewer than 90 points in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, that increased output correlates with improved efficiency from distance. Michigan has shot 44.0% or better from three-point range in four of those five contests.
UConn’s Defensive Supremacy and Faltering Offense
UConn’s defense will be up to the task versus the Wolverines, but we don’t trust their offense to match Michigan’s production. The Huskies have leveled up their defense in the College Basketball Tournament, holding all five opponents to 72 points or fewer. After getting hammered by Duke, we saw UConn tidy up its defensive play versus Illinois. The Big East runner-ups held mighty Illinois to just 19-for-56 from the floor, including 6-for-26 from beyond the arc. That’s consistent with their usual standard, with the Huskies limiting their last three opponents to 28.1% from distance.
Still, we can’t look past UConn’s offensive shortcomings. They rank a distant 26th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings, well shy of Michigan’s fourth-spot. Moreover, we’ve seen this team falter over the final weeks of the season. The Huskies have been held to 67 points or fewer in four of their last nine, with an eroding 41.6% field goal percentage over their last three. Tarris Reed has driven scoring for the Huskies in the tourney, but he will meet his match in Yaxel Lendeborg on Monday night.
Predictions
Offensively, these teams play with contrasting styles. Michigan plays with pace, maximizing touches and shots from long-range. Conversely, the Huskies play a systematic brand of offense, slowing the pace and waiting for their scoring opportunities to develop.
Unfortunately, those will be few and far between against the Wolverines’ stout defense. The Big Ten regular season champs have suffocated their opponents, and better offensive teams than the Huskies have failed to break through.
With that, we’re heading into the National Championship Game with two betting plays in mind. Michigan should pull away late from a UConn team that takes its foot off the pedal, but we still expect both defenses to shine under the bright lights in Indianapolis. Michigan covers in a low-scoring affair.
Picks: Michigan -6.5, Under 145.5
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