The NBA Playoffs field is set! For 12 teams, that means it’s time to start gearing up for a run at the Larry O’Brien Trophy. For eight others, they have to fight their way into the playoff bracket via the Play-In Tournament.
That journey tips off on Tuesday night, with the Miami Heat battling it out with the Charlotte Hornets and the Phoenix Suns hosting the Portland Trail Blazers.
Let’s dive into the betting lines, offering our sage advice on the best bets to make in both contests!
Eastern Conference 9th vs 10th
Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets
Moneyline: MIA +175 | CHA -210
Spread: MIA +5.5 (-110) | CHA -5.5 (-110)
Total: 228.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
The Heat operated one of the most prolific offenses in the NBA this season. The 10th-seeded Eastern Conference representatives averaged the second-most points per game, ratcheting up that total toward the tailend of the regular season. The Hornets play a more methodical game, but they could be pushed out of their comfort zone by the visitors in a win-or-go-home clash.
Miami plays with unrelenting pace, averaging 107.0 offensive possessions per game, vastly outpacing the Hornets’ 101.0, a number that has plummeted to 96.7 over their last three. More importantly, the Heat are operating efficiently with those touches, going north of 140 points in two straight and three of five.
Charlotte will do its best to slow the Heat’s torrid pace, but they’ve been burned by less efficient offenses in recent contests. The Pistons and Celtics pushed the pace versus the Hornets, with both easily cashing by double-digits. Predictably, that correlates with an increased opponent shooting percentage, with the Hornets giving up points on 47.7% of shots. That’s not a standard that will hold up against the Heat.
For better or worse, Miami has abandoned its defensive responsibilities in favor of more scoring chances. More recently, there is no disputing the resounding positive impact that has had. It won’t help them get past the top teams in the conference, but it should be enough to escape Charlotte with the win and advance to Friday’s winner-take-all Play-In showdown.
Best Bet: Heat +175
Western Conference 7th vs 8th
Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns
Moneyline: POR +130 | PHX -150
Spread: POR +3.5 (-105) | PHX -3.5 (-115)
Total: 216.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Devin Booker has put the Phoenix Suns on his back to close out the regular season. The two-time All-NBA guard has gone north of 30 points in three straight and five of six, a trend he will need to maintain to help the Suns get past the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday night.
As good as Booker has been, this Western Conference tilt should be predicated on defense. Both the Suns and Trail Blazers rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency. Phoenix gives up 115.0 points per 100 possessions, marginally ahead of Portland’s 115.6 mark.
Moreover, both teams have flashed their defensive acumen over their recent schedule. The Suns have held opponents to 107 points or fewer in three straight, yielding a per game average of 103.3. The Blazers have been on a similar run, holding their previous three opponents to an average of 106.3 points per game.
The winner of tonight’s showdown will be determined by whichever team can make the most of their offensive touches. In that regard, the Suns wield a pronounced advantage. While they average fewer points per game, the Pacific Division representatives are much more efficient with the ball in their hands. Phoenix averages the fifth-most three-pointers per game and is vastly superior at the charity stripe.
That will be the difference as the Suns hop on Devin Booker’s back for one last hurrah at home. We predict the Suns’ guard will sustain his current scoring form, and help lead Phoenix to the seventh seed in the Western Conference. It could come down to free throws, but the Suns punch their ticket to the first-round of the NBA Playoffs.
Best Bet: Suns -150
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