No league does a better job at controlling the sports narrative year round than the NFL. From preseason to OTAs to free agency, there is always something on the football calendar.
One of the league’s more notable events takes center stage this week, as the 2026 NFL Draft unfolds. Players were busy at the combine last month, hosting Pro Days in the lead up to this year’s event in Pittsburgh. With that, teams have prepared their draft boards and are heading into the selection process with a concrete idea of who they want to add to their roster.
As is the case in modern sports, that also translates to more wagering opportunities for bettors. The NFL Draft has become a staple of the offseason, and everyone is always wanting to get a piece of the action.
Let’s peruse the odds and see where the betting opportunities lie ahead of the draft!
First Overall – Off the Board
The first thing that bettors will notice is that there are no odds for the first overall selection. That line was taken off the board months ago, as it has become nothing more than a formality for the Las Vegas Raiders to call Fernando Mendoza’s name. The Indiana Hoosiers quarterback has cemented his position as the first name off the board, and sportsbooks aren’t in the business of handing out free money.
Second & Third Overall – Arvell Reese vs. David Bailey
For weeks, we watched Arvell Reese’s odds increase as the presumptive second overall selection. The Ohio State off-ball linebacker could fill a hybrid role in the NFL, which has become a staple among modern defenses. Like his versatility on the field, it’s become less certain whether Reese will be the second name called in Pittsburgh.
That’s because David Bailey has emerged as a top candidate to go second to the Jets. The Texas Tech edge rusher plays a more traditional role on defense, which is a more prominent area of need in New York. With that, the betting prices are starting to shift, yielding more value on Bailey instead of Reese.
As it stands, Arvell Reese is still the favorite, priced as high as -400 at some shops. But with the emergence of David Bailey, currently listed in the +150 range, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the Jets go rogue and take the former Red Raider.
The consolation prize for the player not selected is a spot on the Arizona Cardinals roster. It seems more probable than not that the NFC West squad will prioritize whichever player slides to them at three.
Top 5 &10 Picks
The betting market should pick up as we approach draft night. Typically, bettors can wager on team slots, number of positional players drafted in the first round, draft position, and a litany of other options. For now, we’re concentrating our efforts on the players drafted in the Top 5 and Top 10.
Top 5
Considering their respective positions, Fernando Mendoza and Arvell Reese aren’t wagering options to go in the Top 5. That leaves three other players who will cash in this market.
Not surprisingly, David Bailey is an assertive -800 to go within the first five picks. Likewise, it seems like a foregone conclusion that Jeremiah Love will be the fourth name called. The Notre Dame running back is currently installed as -310 chalk, implying with certainty that the Titans won’t pass on him. From there, any number of players could be called by the Giants.
Sonny Styles is the betting favorite. Another Ohio State linebacker, Styles would be the catalyst the Giants have been missing from their roster. However, our money will be on Caleb Downs to go fifth overall. Listed at +210, Downs is a shutdown safety capable of transforming any secondary. While Sonny Styles is an undisputed talent, New York could find similar production later in th draft. No other secondary defender compares to Caleb Downs, and we would be surprised to see him slip past five.
Top 10
It becomes more of a craps shoot as we wander into the Top 10. Depending on team need, evaluations, or even trades, we could see some unexpected results with the next five picks.
As inferred from the betting market, Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson, and Francis Mauigoa are locks to go in the Top 10. However, it’s worth paying attention to Rueben Bain Jr., Mansoor Delane, and Spencer Fano as other potential top picks.
Under the assumption that Mendoza, Reese, Bailey, Love, Styles, and Downs are the consensus top six picks, that only leaves four potential slots for other players. Carnell Tate and Francis Mauigoa are the obvious choices to solidify their respective positions, with Bain Jr. and Delane looking like the safer bets to round out the Top 10.
Final Thoughts
The drama and intrigue of the NFL Draft is always compounded by trades. Any team could value a specific player and make it their mission to trade up to get him. With that, there are few certainties as we gear up for this year’s draft in the Steel City.
The next few days will be telling as rumors emerge and teams leak what little information they are willing to share. Keep your eyes on the betting prices and be ready to adjust on the fly.
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