Up until this point, it’s been entirely academic.
The Oklahoma City Thunder made short work of the Phoenix Suns in Round 1. Easily dispatching the Los Angeles Lakers in the second-round. Most impressively, they have done so without incurring a loss.
As these things typically go, the betting market has taken notice of the Thunder’s dominance, sending the betting price soaring. There are only a few teams who stand in their way, but can anyone stop the Thunder?
Thunder Dominance
Offense is the name of the game for Oklahoma City, and in that regard the Thunder continue to thrive. The defending champs are averaging 121.3 points per game in the playoffs, shooting an incredible 51.0% from the floor including 38.4% from distance.
At the same time, we’ve seen stout defensive play from the Thunder, giving up more than 110 points just once this postseason. That correlates with a 5-3 record against the spread, implying that the betting market is still underestimating the Thunder’s dominance on a game-to-game basis. That’s not the case when it comes to their futures price.
Heading into the Conference Finals, OKC is priced as chalky -165 favorites to repeat as champions. That represents a substantive move from their +115 at the outset of the postseason. From an implied probability standpoint, that accounts for a 15% increase, going from 46.5% (+115) to 62.3% (-165).
Only two teams can stop the Thunder from going back-to-back, but there’s still some debate as to which teams will face Oklahoma City in each of the final two rounds.
Spurs, Timberwolves Won’t Have Much Left
The Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs have been locked in a dog fight in the other Western Conference matchup. The longer that series goes, the less either team will have left to try and dethrone the Thunder.
From a betting perspective, most players are giving the Spurs the best chance of usurping their Western Conference foes. Spurred by a $50,000 wager, San Antonio has attracted nearly 20.0% of the betting handle and a Western Conference-leading 21.6% ticket count. While that represents a more public share of the market, there are a few considerations worth making.
First, the Spurs are one of the most dominant defensive squads in the league. They rank top three in virtually every metric, limiting opponents to an estimated 108.5 points per 100 possessions. With Victor Wembanyama patrolling the interior and Devin Vassell shutting down shooters on the perimeter, the Spurs may have the winning combination to negate the Thunder’s attack.
Some people still believe in the T-Wolves. But with a lesser-than market share and a ho-hum offense, they’d be nothing more than roadkill in trying to stop the Thunder Express.
Eastern Conference Contenders
The Eastern Conference situation is analogous to what we’re seeing out West. The New York Knicks have punched their ticket to the Eastern Conference Final, dismantling the Philadelphia 76ers in Round 2. They await the winner of the Pistons vs. Cavaliers series, which has turned out to be a grind for both teams.
Cleveland leveled the second-round matchup with a convincing win at home in Game 3. The Cavs put up 38 third-quarter points, before taking their foot off the pedal to close out the contest. That makes this one a best-of-three, with the series shifting back to the Motor City.
Betting-wise, the Pistons still lead the way out East. Detroit has collected a conference-best 22.6% ticket count and 26.6% handle, showcasing bettors preference from stout defensive play in the postseason. Still, the Knicks could beat the Thunder at their own game, unleashing their seemingly unstoppable offense. New York averaged 124.3 points per game in sweeping the Sixers, eclipsing 137 points in two of those four contests.
The Cavaliers face the steepest climb in trying to claim their first title in 10 years. Still, Donovan Mitchell is playing like a man-possessed, and could put the Cavs on his back end route to an unexpected run to the NBA Finals.
Final Thoughts
The further we wander into the NBA Playoffs, the more likely a Thunder championship repeat becomes. Oklahoma City is one of the premier teams in both ends of the court, beating teams with their scorching offense and superb defense. The Spurs and Pistons represent the biggest defensive challenges, whereas the Knicks could try and force the pace offensively to try and get past the champs.
Anything can happen in the playoffs and nothing can be taken for granted. Still, the one thing we do know, any team that hopes to knock off the Thunder will need to play impeccable basketball.
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