The puck drops on the NHL’s Conference Finals tonight, with the Colorado Avalanche hosting the Vegas Golden Knights in the Western Conference matchup. The Avs enter the series as prohibitive favorites, with their presumptive dominance captured in the Game 1 betting line.
We’re analyzing the betting lines and game data, offering our favorite plays for tonight’s momentum-building showdown.
Colorado Avalanche vs Vegas Golden Knights
Moneyline: COL -190 | VGK +155
Spread: COL -1.5 (+125) | VGK +1.5 (-155)
Total: 6.5 Over (+100) | Under (-120)
As was the case throughout the regular season, Colorado has been the most dominant team in the playoffs. The Golden Knights have relied more heavily on special teams scoring, putting them at a sincere disadvantage versus the Stanley Cup favorites.
The Avalanche continue to assert themselves at five-on-five. Through the opening two rounds, they lead the league in expected goals-for rating (56.0%) while averaging 10.1 high-danger chances and 25.1 scoring chances per game. Moreover, their play has improved as they progress throughout the postseason, with the Avs boasting a 62.7% eGF rating over their previous three contests, eclipsing 11 high-danger opportunities in all but one of those contests.
At the same time, Colorado has maximized offensive production without compromising defensive integrity. The Presidents Trophy winners have held their opponents to eight or fewer quality chances in three of four, yielding a paltry average of 8.5 opportunities per game.
The Golden Knights’ efforts have been much less impressive. Vegas has been outplayed in four of its last six, producing a disastrous 47.3% expected goals-for rating. Relative to their actual mark of 57.9%, it’s clear that the Knights are regression candidates ahead of the Western Conference Final.
As expected, their production metrics correlate with their lackluster eGF rating. The Pacific Division winners have been held to six high-danger chances in four of six, while getting out-chanced in half of those contests. They may have been able to offset those analytics shortcomings against an inexperienced Ducks squad, but the Golden Knights will have a hell of a time overcoming that deficit against the best team in the league.
All signs point toward another elite performance from the Avalanche in Game 1. Vegas will quickly find itself on the ropes, and Colorado isn’t the type of team to take its foot off the pedal. We’re going all in on an Avs victory on Wednesday night.
Best Bet: Avalanche -190
Player Props: Logan O’Connor Any Time Goal Scorer +650
Nathan MacKinnon continues to steal the spotlight in Colorado, but there are several role players that could shine in the Western Conference Final. Specifically, we’re looking at Logan O’Connor as an any time goal scorer in Game 1.
Currently priced at a distant +650 any time goal scorer, O’Connor’s analytics profile supports a massive swing in puck luck over the coming games. He has positive relative metrics across the board, sporting 61.7% scoring chance and 52.3% high-danger chance ratings. Most impressively, he’s skating around with a 62.7% Corsi rating, the second-highest mark on the team among all skaters who have appeared in every playoff game. The Avs obviously recognize his offensive pedigree, starting O’Connor in the attacking zone on 54.2% of his shifts.
Despite his analytics success, the Avs’ forward has only been on the ice for two goals at five-on-five, operating significantly below his expected total of 4.3. Without a goal since the playoff opener, O’Connor is operating below his career average shooting percentage. And with seven shots on net over his previous five contests, it’s just a matter of time before he capitalizes on those chances.
From a game play perspective, O’Connor should have ample opportunity to produce against the Knights’ third and fourth lines. Jared Bednar can deploy his depth scorers in more ideal situations, ensuring O’Connor maintains his elite playoff play early in Round 3.
There are many scorers ahead of him on the odds board, but Logan O’Connor is the premier value candidate in tonight’s Western Conference battle.
Best Bet: Logan O’Connor Any Time Goal Scorer +650
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