The Vegas Golden Knights stunned the Colorado Avalanche last night, kicking off the NHL’s Conference Finals and setting the stage for another potential upset victory out East. The Carolina Hurricanes have been eagerly awaiting their Round 3 opponent, which was confirmed with the Montreal Canadiens’ victory over the Sabres on Monday night.
The Habs will be looking to continue that momentum in the Eastern Conference Final, but they could have a hard time skating past a rested Canes squad.
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Montreal Canadiens
Moneyline: CAR -195 | MTL +165
Spread: CAR -1.5 (+130) | MTL +1.5 (-155)
Total: 5.5 Over (-130) | Under (+110)
The Canadiens’ offense continues to come up clutch, but it’s coming at the expense of their defensive metrics. They may be able to continue their onslaught in Carolina; however, their defensive zone coverage will be tested by a Canes team that wields a substantive analytics advantage.
Scoring has been the driving force in Montreal’s playoff success. Through 14 playoff games, the Habs have recorded 27 goals at five-on-five, yielding an elite 10.8% shooting percentage. Predictably, that output looks even more robust across all strengths, with the Canadiens netting 43 goals (3.1 per game) while scoring on 12.2% of shots.
Carolina stands as a stout defensive competitor, but the Habs have proven capable of breaking through any defensive structure. To close out their second-round series versus the Sabres, the Canadiens recorded 37 high-danger chances across the last three games, eclipsing 15 opportunities in all but one of those contests. That brought their series average up to 10.1 quality chances per game, with their best work coming on the road.
That offensive energy will be matched by the Hurricanes. The Metropolitan Division winners have seen a massive improvement in their production metrics, equaling the Habs’ 37 high-danger chances across their last three playoff games. Moreover, they have hit double-digit attempts in four of eight this postseason, yielding an impressive 10.2 high-danger chances per game.
Unlike their Eastern Conference Finals counterparts, the Canes haven’t experienced the same level of scoring success. Their shooting percentage is hovering at 8.0%, and they’ve been held to two or fewer goals at five-on-five in six of their eight playoff games. Thankfully, we’re predicting a slight increase in the Canes output over their coming games. Carolina is operating below its expected goals-for total and it is nearly a full point below its regular season 8.9% shooting percentage.
Offense should flow naturally in the series opener in Raleigh. The Canes are well rested and due for increased output. The Canadiens are no strangers to this run-and-gun style of play, and they’ll be happy to trade chances with their hosts throughout. In the end, we predict this one makes its way over the total.
Best Bet: Over 5.5 -130
Player Props: Alex Newhook Any Time Goal Scorer +300
Nick Suzuki has earned a reputation for being an elite two-way player, and Cole Caufield stands as the Habs’ premier scorer. Still, Alex Newhook has stolen the show for Montreal in the playoffs, and we expect him to maintain his elite scoring pace in Game 1 versus the Hurricanes.
Montreal has extracted maximum value throughout its roster. Analytically, Newhook stands above the rest. Among players who have appeared in all 14 playoff games, he ranks second on the team in actual goals-for rating, yielding a 75.0% benchmark. Moreover, that output is stamped by elite production metrics. The speedy winger ranks among the NHL’s elite talent with a 61.2% high-danger chance rating. Moreover, Newhook has been on the ice for 73 scoring chances across his 14 appearances, yielding a healthy 5.2 opportunities per game.
More importantly, Newhook has translated those production metrics to tangible output. He leads the team with seven goals this postseason and leads the league with all seven of those coming at even strength. With 22 shots and six goals over his previous seven contests, the Habs will continue to deploy their hot hand against the Hurricanes.
It’s not reflected in the betting price, but we’re anticipating sustained scoring with Newhook’s elite production metrics. He was the Canadiens’ constant in the second-round, setting the tone offensively and leading the team to a monumental series win with his Game 7 overtime marker. If Montreal has any chance of advancing to the next round, it comes on Newhook’s stick. We’re backing him as an any time goal scorer in Game 1.
Best Bet: Alex Newhook Any Time Goal Scorer +650
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