The Vegas Golden Knights are off to the Stanley Cup Final. The Western Conference Champions easily dispatched the Colorado Avalanche in the conference final, sweeping the heavily favored and formerly Stanley Cup chalk Avs. Vegas awaits the victor of the Carolina Hurricanes and Montreal Canadiens, with the Canes wielding a 2-1 series lead ahead of Wednesday night’s pivotal Game 4.
This is an ideal time to reassess the Conn Smythe Trophy futures market, before the market concentrates further once the Eastern Conference Champion is known.
Who are the biggest movers and who has a legitimate shot at claiming this year’s playoff MVP award?
Mitch Marner
For years, Mitch Marner was the whipping boy and scapegoat for all of the Maple Leafs’ playoff woes. As it turns out, he was never the problem in Toronto.
Marner has been virtually unstoppable this postseason. The Golden Knights’ winger has already accumulated 21 points, putting him three clear of the next closest skater.
As expected, that output has precipitated a massive swing in Marner’s Conn Smythe Trophy odds. The Canadian is priced as the odds-on favorite to hoist the trophy at the end playoffs, currently listed at +145 while attracting 16.3% of betting handle.
Buying high can be ill-advised long-term strategy, particularly in Marner’s case. There are cracks in his analytics profile and all of the value has been sucked out of his +6600 pre-playoffs price. Marner has negative relative metrics in high-danger chances, shots-for, and expected goals-for rating.
In short, Marner overachieving at five-on-five and could regress in the final. With that, there could be more value in targeting one of his teammates.
Jack Eichel
Mitch Marner has stolen the limelight in Sin City, but Jack Eichel has been doing most of the heavy lifting in the shadows. The Knights’ assistant captain sits just three points back of his teammate for the playoff scoring lead. With a superior analytics profile and longer odds, Eichel could be the player to target ahead of the final.
Curiously, Eichel sits a distant +1800 in the Conn Smythe futures market. This despite leading the NHL in assists and out-ranking Marner in several prominent analytics categories. Eichel averages more high-danger chances per game, with a better shots-for ratings and superior expected goals-for total.
Playing on different lines, Eichel and Marner could be on diverging paths in the Stanley Cup Final. We’re betting Eichel has the better showing and sees a massive shift in his betting odds.
Taylor Hall
It’s been a chaotic journey for Taylor Hall. The former first-overall selection has turned into a bit of a journeyman in the latter stages of his NHL career, but he’s become a Conn Smythe frontrunner during the Canes’ playoff run.
Carolina plays a more structured and reserved brand of hockey, but that doesn’t diminish Hall’s accomplishments. He leads the team in scoring, recording 13 points in 11 games. Moreover, he thrives in the Canes’ systems, as evidenced by his elite analytics play. Hall has a sterling 68.9% expected goals-for rating, propped up by 64.1% high-danger chance and 61.8% Corsi ratings.
The betting market has taken notice of Hall’s postseason dominance, moving him up the odds board with each passing game. At the start of the playoffs, he was a +20000 afterthought. Subsequently, Hall was bumped to +2500 after Round 1 and +1400 after the second round. Now, Hall has the third-shortest odds on the board, installed as a +800 contender. Surely, that upward trajectory will continue the longer the Hurricanes stay in the Stanley Cup race.
Frederik Andersen
The market is keen on Frederik Andersen’s Conn Smythe chances, but we are more apprehensive about his outlook to claim the award.
Granted, Andersen has been a stalwart through the opening three rounds of the playoffs. Still, he’s shown cracks in his armor and is a potential regression candidate over the coming weeks.
As it stands, Andersen is operating with a 1.56 goals against average and 92.3% save percentage, both of which put him ahead of recent norms. The Canes’ netminder finished the regular season with a 3.05 goals against average and 87.4% save percentage. Further, he has stopped just 80.4% of shots in the Eastern Conference Final.
Despite his 10.4% handle, we have reservations about Andersen’s outlook as a Conn Smythe contender. Tread carefully with this netminder.
Nick Suzuki
There’s an argument to be made that Jakub Dobes or Lane Hutson are the deserving candidates out of the Canadiens’ camp; however, we’re believers in what Nick Suzuki brings on a nightly basis.
The Habs’ captain has been nothing short of sensational this postseason. Suzuki plays a solid two-way game, leading the way offensively without compromising defensive responsibility. He leads the team in scoring, sitting just five back of the playoff lead. Despite his scoring success, Suzuki remains below expected totals at five-on-five, implying we could see a dramatic increase in output over the coming games.
Montreal is a deserving underdog versus the Hurricanes. Still, if the Canadiens have any chance of upending their Eastern Conference counterparts, that charge will be led by Nick Suzuki. At +3000, he’s the dark horse candidate worth backing.
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