The Vegas Golden Knights have already punched their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final. They await the winner of the Carolina Hurricanes vs. Montreal Canadiens in the Eastern Conference Final. Since dropping the series opener, the Canes have flexed their analytics muscle, easily dispatching the Habs in each of the last three games. Now, Carolina needs just one more win to secure its first trip to the Stanley Cup Final since 2006.
The Canadiens faced elimination in each of the first two rounds. We don’t think the moment is too big for them and expect a more wholesome effort as the series shifts back to Raleigh for Game 5.
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Montreal Canadiens
Moneyline: CAR -240 | MTL +200
Spread: CAR -1.5 (+110) | MTL +1.5 (-130)
Total: 5.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Scoring has been the Habs’ most prominent strength throughout the playoffs. Still, they’ve recorded just four goals over the past three outings. While their metrics have taken a bit, we saw them penetrate the Canes’ defensive structure in the latter stages of Game 4. Expect them to carry that momentum into tonight’s clash at the Lenovo Center.
Across this three-game skid, Montreal has mustered just 15 high-danger and 42 scoring chances. That puts them significantly behind their respective playoff averages of 8.0 and 17.4. The Hurricanes deserve a ton of credit for tightening their defensive structure, but we’ve already seen the Canadiens exploit the Metropolitan Division Champions earlier in this series. Back in Game 1, Montreal put up 12 high-danger and 19 scoring opportunities, using those chances to record six goals, four of which came at five-on-five.
Since their initial outburst, the Habs’ team shooting percentage has plummeted to 7.7% at five-on-five, a marked decrease from their playoff average of 11.2%. More chances should precipitate more scoring, and we’re expecting the Habs to pull off all the stops to stay alive.
At the same time, Carolina’s offense isn’t as potent as it has shown over the last few games. They are up to 30.3 scoring and 14.0 high-danger chances per game, a significant departure from their postseason averages of 27.8 and 11.3. While the Canes remain a dominant analytics team, they aren’t immune to regression. As those scoring chances dry up, we should see a decrease in output. Unfortunately, we expect that to hit them over the coming games, implying that we should see closer battles play out.
Clearly, the Hurricanes are the more dominant team and deserving favorite in Game 5. However, we don’t think the gap between these teams is as wide as the betting market implies. Montreal’s offense should find a new gear as it tries to stave off elimination. Moreover, the Hurricanes should come back down to earth after overachieving in their last three outings. The Habs have been in this position before, and they will be ready to throw everything the Hurricanes’ way. It may not be enough to pull off the outright upset, but it should be sufficient to cover the puck line.
Best Bet: Canadiens +1.5 -130
Player Props: Nick Suzuki Any Time Goal Scorer +290
It has been a tepid few games for Nick Suzuki. The Habs’ captain has been held pointless in each of the last three outings, despite an increase in his production. We predict that Suzuki will be one of the main players on Friday night, putting the Canadiens on his back with another superb showing.
Suzuki ended the regular season as one of the premier scorers in the NHL. He totaled 29 goals and 72 assists, eclipsing the century mark for the first time in his career. Across all strengths, he notched a 15.8% shooting percentage while playing a key roles on the powerplay and at five-on-five. While he continues to be deployed in a primary role, Suzuki’s scoring has taken a hit in the playoffs. He has just four goals in 18 games and a 10.8% shooting percentage, despite increases to his ice-time and powerplay usage.
That disconnect points toward an increase in output as long as the Canadiens can stay alive, a position that’s also captured in Suzuki’s analytics profile. As it stands, he’s operating below his expected goals-for total, being on the ice for 22 goals, compared to his expected total of 25.9. With positive relative metrics in scoring chances, high-danger opportunities, shots-for, and Corsi rating, Suzuki is a natural progression candidate to close out the postseason.
Throughout the regular season and even in the Olympics, we’ve seen Suzuki deliver when it matters most. Expect another resounding effort in Game 5, with the Habs’ forward being the beneficiary of some well-deserved puck luck. At the current betting prices, we see a significant edge in backing Suzuki as an any time goal scorer.
Best Bet: Nick Suzuki Any Time Goal Scorer +290
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