Four wins separate the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks from an NBA Championship. San Antonio dethroned the defending champion Thunder in the Western Conference Final, while the New York Knicks made short work of the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference bracket. That sets up a grudge match of epic proportions, as two of the top offenses in the league stand toe-to-toe on the NBA’s biggest stage.
The Spurs are installed as prohibitive favorites, but the betting market is already starting to steam the Knicks. What inferences can we make from the betting market ahead of the 2026 NBA Finals?
Big Money Wagers
As is the case every season, BetMGM collected several big money wagers on several teams throughout the campaign. However, the sportsbook will be left sweating a couple of prominent bets ahead of the championship series.
At the outset of the playoffs, the Knicks were priced as +2200 underdogs. Still, one sharp bettor had the faculties to recognize that price for the profitable endeavor it would become. BetMGM took a $20,000 wager on the Knicks to win it all, yielding a potential payday of $460,000. Conversely, another bettor got $50,000 down on the Spurs ahead of the postseason, which could net a noteworthy $375,000.
Either way, one bettor will be looking like a genius when they step to the window to collect their winnings at the end of the finals.
Deep Bench Spurring San Antonio
Undoubtedly, Victor Wembanyama is the catalyst propelling the Spurs’ ascent. Still, San Antonio wouldn’t be in the NBA Finals without its deep cast of supporting scorers.
Heading into the series opener on Wednesday night, Wembanyama leads the team with 23.2 points per game on 51.0%; however, five other players are averaging north of 11.0 points per game, and the team is shooting a collective 46.9% from the field.
If by some chance, the Knicks find a way to contain Wemby, San Antonio can turn to any of its secondary contributors to shoulder the offensive load. Stephon Castle is the obvious contender to lead the charge, but Devin Vassell, De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, or Julian Champagnie can all be counted on to contribute offensively.
Knicks Employ Offensive Energy
Not surprisingly, the New York Knicks are one of the few teams that can match the Spurs’ offensive energy. But the gap between their top and secondary producers is more pronounced.
Jalen Brunson has been the Knicks’ sharpshooter throughout the playoffs. The three-time All-Star is up to 26.9 points per game on 48.6% shooting. While he alternated elite with mediocre performances in the Eastern Conference Final, Brunson is the undisputed offensive leader in the Big Apple.
OG Anunoby is the next leading scorer, but his performances last round don’t inspire a ton of confidence. The swingman eclipsed 20 points just once versus the Cavs and averaged just 16.3 points per game. Karl-Anthony Towns will be expected to pick up the slack, but his scoring can’t be taken for granted as he goes up against Defensive Player of the Year Victor Wenbanyama. That means that Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart could be tasked with making more prominent contributions against another premier defender in Devin Vassell.
New York got the credit it deserved for its dominant offensive play against the Cavaliers. But if the Spurs can contain the Thunder’s scoring punch, they should have no problem minimizing the Knicks’ impact.
NBA Finals MVP – A 2-Horse Race
The NBA Finals MVP is Victor Wembanyama’s to lose. The Spurs’ big man has been a dominant force on both ends of the court, and bettors are banking on Wemby’s sustained dominance against the Knicks.
At the start of the playoffs, Wembanyama’s playoff assertiveness was assumed. He was priced as an NBA Finals MVP frontrunner, solidifying his position with each successive round. Wemby has gone from +650 to a chalky -190, on the strength of 14.4% of the tickets and 22.5% of the handle. If the Spurs cash, Victor Wembanyama will be named the Finals MVP.
Jalen Brunson is the Robin to Wemby’s Batman in the NBA Finals MVP race. The Knicks’ guard has seen a meteoric rise up the odds board, going from +2800 to +200, the second-shortest price on the board. Predictably, that correlates with a flood of betting action, with Brunson commanding a hefty 16.5% of the tickets and 24.2% of the handle.
As a dark horse, bettors may want to set their sights on Karl-Anthony Towns. The Knicks’ big man is Wemby-lite, playing formidable roles on both ends of the court. If he contains his Spurs’ counterpart or breaks through on offense, KAT’s odds should rise even higher. Towns has already gone from +15000 to +2200, but we could see him endear himself to bettors in the finals.
Final Thoughts
The Spurs and Knicks play solid two-way games. Still, the 2026 NBA Finals is a battle of offensive titans. San Antonio’s offense runs through Victor Wembanyama, but any of their secondary contributors can step up and take over. Likewise, Jalen Brunson commands the Knicks’ offense and needs to be at his best to claim the Larry O’Brien Trophy and NBA Finals MVP. Even if Brunson is at his best, it likely won’t be enough to stop the Spurs.
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