The Group Stage is complete and we have ventured into the Knockout Round at the 2026 World Cup. The expanded field led to more drama, with several groups seeing unexpected results and a handful of third place teams being left hanging in the balance into the final moments of the first round.
With that, the field is officially down to 31 teams, after Canada eliminated South Africa in the first Round of 32 game on Sunday. That makes it a perfect time to review the BetMGM Championship futures board to see how the odds have shifted.
France Still on Top
To no one’s surprise, France is still installed as the betting leader, albeit at a vastly diminished price. The French opened the tournament as +600 chalk, getting bet down to +450 at the outset of the Group Stage. After a dominant, if not thrilling, three games, their odds have continued to shrink.
Heading into its first knockout game, France is the undisputed favorite at +300. Predictably, that superiority is also captured in their mark share. The once-removed champions have commanded a 20.4% handle on 15.3% of the tickets.
Needing to escape a bracket that features Spain, Germany, and Portugal, there are more profitable betting strategies to employ rather than backing France at this short price.
Argentina on the Rise
Repeating as World Cup Champions is no easy feat, and one bettors weren’t counting on in 2026. But after Argentina breezed through the Group Stage, more bettors are starting to pile on Lionel Messi’s squad.
Argentina made short work of Group J. La Albiceleste lived up to their reputation, sailing in blue skies to a 3-0-0 record and +8 goal differential. Argentina’s betting odds inversely correlated with those performances. Messi’s squad has seen their odds cut in half going from +800 pre-Group Stage to +400 at the start of the elimination phase.
The sharp correction has come on the influx of more betting action. Argentina’s 9.2% handle exceeds its 7.9% ticket count, implying there’s some sharp involvement on the South American side. With a relatively unobstructed path to the final, Argentina is ready to climb the football mountain again in 2026.
The Rest of the Contenders
There are a trio of other contenders, who are holding relatively steady at the start of the knockout round. England, Spain, and Portugal all experienced some level of success in the Group Stage, without the corresponding dip in their betting odds.
England triumphed in Group L, capturing two wins and a draw to claim top spot in the division. Still, their championship odds remain unchanged from opening. The English are still priced near the top of the board at +700. Like the other top teams, England’s handle exceeds its ticket count, implying some large money wagers continue to come in on the European squad.
Spain is treading water in the sea of futures wagers, if not drowning a little bit. They opened as +1000 frontrunners, falling to +450 at the start of the group stage. Since then, their odds have steadily decreased, going to after the tournament opener +500 to +700 in the Round of 32.
That line movement is contraindicated in the constant betting support. Spain continues to command a World Cup-best 20.5% handle. There are no easy wins in the knockout stage, but bettors still believe in La Roja.
Similarly, the perception is that Portugal hasn’t lived up to its billing as a heavyweight. Still, some of the odds movement appears undeserved. Cristiano Ronaldo’s squad was expected to focus its efforts on the defensive side of the ball, which is exactly what we saw in the opening round. Portugal conceded just one goal in three matches, albeit while recording only one win. Earning a second-place finish, the Portuguese face a challenging path to the final.
Portugal still stands as one of the heaviest backed teams in the tournament. Their 10.6% handle is the third-highest mark at BetMGM, trumping their 9.3% ticket count. While their odds have plummeted from +700 to +1100, expect more tireless defensive efforts as they progress through the bracket.
Former Titans Tumble
We’d be remiss if we didn’t acknowledge the teams that have fallen down the futures board, without the sharp betting support. Brazil and Germany have to overcome the odds if they hope to reclaim their pedestal atop the World Cup.
Brazil was supposed to cruise to victory in Group C; however, they faced serious resistance from an upstart Moroccan team. Brazil drew their tournament opener, precipitating a decline in their odds before the end of the group stage. Now sitting a more distant +1200, few bettors believe in Neymar and the Brazilians. Their 6.5% ticket count surpasses their 6.2% handle, implying that sharp support has been absent from Brazil’s World Cup pursuits.
Sadly, the Germans are in an even worse spot. Earning a paltry 3.6% handle and 5.3% ticket count, Germany isn’t expected to reclaim its 2014 glory. Granted, a top finish in Group E assured the Germans of a favorable Round of 32 matchup. Still, their path beyond that will be contested. Die Mannschaft will need to get past France (presumably) in the Round of 16, and has a bracket littered with land mines throughout.
A loss to Equador to close out the Group Stage could be foreshadowing what to expect from Germany over the coming matches. If we’re relying on the betting data to tell the story, Germany’s 2026 endeavor will come to an unceremonious conclusion sooner rather than later.
Alas, that is the fate that awaits all but one team. We’re about to find out which team gets to triumph over the rest of the world.
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