Few traditions bring as much joy and drama as the NHL free agency signing period. July 1 came and went, and there was no shortage of action as teams started to gear up for next season. There weren’t a ton of prominent names in this year’s free agent crop, but most of the notable players have found new homes. Still, several teams made significant trades leading up to yesterday’s frenzy, reshaping the BetMGM Stanley Cup futures board.
Now that the dust has settled, let’s see what the odds board looks like.
Colorado With an Avalanche of Momentum
At face value, the Colorado Avalanche’s moves are underwhelming. They shored up their blue line with a few additions, bringing in Jaden Schwartz on a short-term deal and trading for former highly-rated prospect Fabian Lysell.
Feeling the salary cap crunch, the Avs were forced to trade Valerie Nichushkin in advance of July 1. Even with the departure, Colorado managed to fill the holes on its roster while keeping its core in tact.
Unlike the teams behind them on the futures board, the Avalanche don’t have any glaring weaknesses on their roster. They added a depth scoring option in Schwartz, while inking Brett Kulak to a team-friendly contract. With that, the Avs sit with the second-shortest odds on the board, currently priced at +850.
Panthers Ready to Roar Again
Arguably, the biggest trade of the offseason happened a few days in advance of free agency. The Florida Panthers made a move for Brady Tkachuk, ensuring Matthew has the Sloth to his Chunk for years to come. Predictably, that sent the Panthers into another betting stratosphere, moving the once-removed champs to the top of the pile.
Florida elected to move on from a few depth pieces, replacing them with more cost effective options. Radko Gudas is only getting $1.5 million per season, albeit for the next six years, with Lars Eller brought in on a minimum contract to bolster the Panthers’ bottom six.
The addition of Jacob Markstrom between the pipes solidifies the blue paint, meaning the Panthers’ are looking to build on their dynasty. They have the support of the betting market, priced as +800 favorites next season.
Oilers Deal From a Position of Weakness
It’s never easy moving on from a player after they demand a trade – especially if you’re the Edmonton Oilers. For all of his previous missteps, Stan Bowman deserves credit for his shrewd dealings to kick-off the free agency period.
The Oilers found a trade partner for the oft-maligned Darnell Nurse, without retaining any of his $9.25 million salary. They got a promising young rearguard in return, but more importantly, freed up some cap space to facilitate a few transactions.
Most notably, the Oilers landed Ryan Shea to replace Nurse on the backend. A late-bloomer, Shea should replicate, if not exceed, Nurse’s production at a fraction of the cost. Further, they brought in Frederik Andersen on a one-year deal and traded for Devon Levi, creating some much needed competition in the crease.
For the past few years, Edmonton has been viewed as a perennial Stanley Cup contender. That’s the case again heading into the 2026-27 campaign, with the Oilers priced near the top of the board at +1100.
Maple Leafs Blunder Another Offseason
Nobody expected John Chayka to work out in Toronto. And still, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ GM managed to bungle the opening day of free agency.
Bringing in Sergei Bobrovsky on a three-year $21 million deal is the biggest head scratcher. The soon-to-be 38-year-old had a disastrous season, posting a 3.07 goals against average and a 87.7% save percentage. The most concerning benchmark was his -23.4 goals saved above average.
The other head-scratching move was inking Colton Sissons to a two-year deal, while nearly doubling his salary amid deteriorating production.
The Leafs are desperately trying to salvage the Auston Matthews era, but these moves do nothing to improve the competitiveness of the club in the immediate future. You can get the Original Six franchise at +2600, but that price will plummet as soon as people see the on-ice product.
Final Thoughts
This is just the tip of the iceberg. More star players have requested trades, and there are more free agent dominoes to fall. Irrespective of future moves, the Avalanche and Panthers are the two juggernauts everyone is gunning for. We expect a few teams to play their hands close to their chest, but wouldn’t be surprised to see a few more table-altering moves before everyone steps onto the ice in October.
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