The 2026 World Cup has been sensational. From goals called back, to red cards, to upsets, and players cementing their legendary status, there has been no shortage of drama and intrigue and this year’s tournament.
A quartet of teams have already assured themselves of a spot in the quarterfinals, and the next four will be determined over the coming days. With that, the BetMGM World Cup futures board continues to evolve, and some high-stakes wagers have reshaped the next few matches.
Let’s take a look to see which teams are on the move!
USA Makes a Big Leap
The USA wasn’t viewed as a threat at the outset of the World Cup. Some pundits questioned their ability to get out of Group D, let alone go on an extended run. Yet, here they are in the Round of 16, viewed as legitimate threats to knock out Belgium. After opening as underdogs, the Americans are now favored over their European counterparts – a position that is also asserted on the Championship board.
When the tournament kicked-off, the USA were +5000 longshots to win it all – a significant departure from its opening +1800 odds. Still, that price has come down with each subsequent match. The Americans were +2500 at the start of the knockout round, and are now priced as +1100 frontrunners.
As expected, that’s reflection of increased market share from some large money wagers. While its 6.7% handle is significantly less than the top contenders, the USA’s 11.5% ticket count is now third-highest. Moreover, BetMGM took a $1,500 wager on the States at +6600, yielding a potential payout of $99,000.
Clearly, Balogun’s red card exemption has shifted the USA’s odds in the Round of 16. But some bettors are loading up on the Americans to continue their assault late into the tournament.
France Heating Up
Everyone knew what to expect from France. Viewed as the premier contender leading up to the 2026 World Cup, Les Bleus have strengthened their grasp as the betting chalk with sustained dominance.
In truth, France has yet to be challenged in the tournament. They waltzed through the Group Stage, posting a 3-0-0 record with a +8 goal differential. From there, they blasted past Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32 and dominated Paraguay en route to 1-0 win last time out. That score suggests that the match was closer than it was, but the French out-possessed Paraguay 76-24 while outshooting the South Americans 15(5) – 5(0).
Naturally, BetMGM has continued to shorten France’s betting price. While they haven’t dipped below +450 since the start of the tournament, Les Bleus are now a chalky +188 to claim their second World Cup title in three tournaments.
France remains the ticket and handle leaders, leaving BetMGM to root for an upset from most other contenders.
Argentina and England Move Up
A string of dominant performances have precipitated a few moves up the odds board. Specifically, Argentina and England have seen a shift in their futures position through the knockout stage. England has already assured itself a spot in the quarterfinals, and Argentina is looking to follow suit in tomorrow’s clash versus Egypt.
England’s position weakened in advance of its showdown versus host Mexico. A jubilant 3-2 victory, in which the Britons spent most of the second-half down to 10 men, shifted their fortunes. The Three Lions now have the third-shortest odds on the board, priced as +550 frontrunners. With their 8.1% handle exceeding their 7.7% ticket count, BetMGM will continue to tighten those prices once the rest of the quarterfinalists are known.
While Argentina has yet to punch its ticket into the next round, BetMGM is aware of its potential exposure on the defending champs. Like England, Argentina’s ticket count (8.1%) is topped by its handle (8.8%). The major difference between these teams, is that Argentina has a less contested path to the Finals. Needing to past Egypt, and then one of Switzerland or Colombia, La Albiceleste won’t be tested before the semifinals. Bettors can employ a few strategies when it comes to backing Argentina, but it won’t be long before Messi’s squad starts to infringe on France’s territory.
Spain vs. Portugal – A Catalyst for Change
Having two juggernauts face off in the Round of 16 was a best case scenario for BetMGM. Rather than sweating deep runs from both teams, the sportsbook can now mitigate its position knowing only one Spain or Portugal will have a spot in the quarterfinals.
Spain was always viewed as a championship threat, but their are no guarantees versus the defensively-responsible Portuguese. Despite a 17.0% handle, La Roja are virtually unchanged relative to their earlier Knockout Round position. Spain is priced at +600 on the futures board, an incremental move compared to their +700 at the start of the tournament. Portugal is in a similar position, oscillating between +1000 and +1200 over the past couple of weeks.
The winner of Monday’s Round of 16 showdown will be immediately vaulted toward the top of the betting board – which is analogous to the futures board from here on out.
Each matchup is a catalyst for change, and BetMGM will continue to adjust its odds accordingly.
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