As the NBA season pushes into its final stretch before the All-Star break, futures betting markets at BetMGM Sportsbook have taken shape, reflecting shifting odds, public betting trends, and major liabilities. With award races and championship futures offering plenty of value, bettors are analyzing the data to make informed wagers. From the MVP frontrunner to a surging team in the Eastern Conference, let’s break down the biggest movers and betting insights across the NBA futures landscape.
Regular Season MVP
- Highest Ticket %: Nikola Jokic 14.3%
- Highest Handle %: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 29.1%
- Biggest Liability: Jayson Tatum
- Odds Leader: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -600
The MVP race has seen Shai Gilgeous-Alexander emerge as the odds-on favorite at -600, leading both the handle percentage (29.1%) and consistently dominating in efficiency and scoring. He leads the NBA scoring race at 32.6 PPG while filling out the scoresheet with 6.0 APG and 5.1 RPG. SGA is the top offensive weapon for the 44-9 Oklahoma City Thunder, who hold the best record in the NBA. However, Nikola Jokic (+400) leads in ticket percentage (14.3%), averaging 29.8 PPG, 11.7 RPG, and 9.3 APG, indicating strong public interest in the three-time MVP. The biggest liability in this market is Jayson Tatum (+30000), whose Boston Celtics (39-16) lead the Atlantic Division.
Rookie of the Year
- Highest Ticket %: Zach Edey 15.0%
- Highest Handle %: Zach Edey 23.8%
- Biggest Liability: Bronny James
- Odds Leader: Stephon Castle +190
Despite Zach Edey (+1200) leading in both ticket (15.0%) and handle percentage (23.8%), Stephon Castle (12.9 PPG) currently sits atop the odds board at +190. Edey has been a strong presence, averaging 9.5 PPG, while leading all rookies with 7.6 RPG, to go along with 1.2 BPG, while Castle’s versatility as a guard has helped him emerge as the favorite. The biggest liability in this market is Bronny James (OTB), highlighting the betting interest in his longshot potential despite limited playing time. The son of LeBron James has played just over 70 total minutes in his NBA career while suiting up for just 17 of the Los Angeles Lakers 52 games. Name recognition and nepotism sure drive that hype train.
Most Improved Player of the Year
- Highest Ticket %: Jalen Williams 9.0%
- Highest Handle %: Norman Powell 15.2%
- Biggest Liability: Franz Wagner
- Odds Leader: Cade Cunningham -145
The tightest two-man race is for Most Improved Player, led by Cade Cunningham (-145), who has shown remarkable growth in both playmaking and efficiency, averaging 25.4 PPG, 6.3 APG, and 5.1 RPG. However, Jalen Williams (+10000) leads in ticket percentage (9.0%), indicating that bettors see him as a strong alternative. Norman Powell (+140) commands the highest handle percentage (15.2%), reflecting significant backing from sharp bettors. Powell is averaging a career-best 23.8 PPG for the Los Angeles Clippers. The biggest liability remains Franz Wagner (OTB), who has provided consistent production for the Orlando Magic (27-29).
Defensive Player of the Year
- Highest Ticket %: Victor Wembanyama 20.3%
- Highest Handle %: Victor Wembanyama 29.8%
- Biggest Liability: Draymond Green
- Odds Leader: Victor Wembanyama -2500
This market is heavily skewed toward Victor Wembanyama (-2500), who leads both ticket percentage (20.3%) and handle percentage (29.8%). The rookie center has been a defensive anchor, averaging an NBA-best 3.8 blocks per game, making him the clear favorite for the much-improved San Antonio Spurs. The biggest liability, however, is Draymond Green (OTB), likely due to his reputation with the Golden State Warriors, enticing opening odds and previous wins in the category. Green’s only played in 40 games this year. Wembanyama’s elite rim protection and ability to guard multiple positions have cemented his status as a runaway favorite.
Sixth Man of the Year
- Highest Ticket %: Payton Pritchard 14.3%
- Highest Handle %: Payton Pritchard 27.6%
- Biggest Liability: Payton Pritchard
- Odds Leader: Payton Pritchard -160
The Sixth Man of the Year market is all Payton Pritchard (-160), who leads in all key betting metrics: ticket percentage (14.3%), handle percentage (27.6%), and biggest liability. Pritchard has been an essential contributor to the defending NBA Champion Boston Celtics, leading their bench with 13.8 PPG. He’s also shooting 41.1% from beyond the arc. His ability to impact games off the bench for a title-contending team has made him the clear favorite. De’Andre Hunter is still in the mix at +240, but it’s Pritchard’s award to lose.
Coach of the Year
- Highest Ticket %: Mike Budenholzer 14.5%
- Highest Handle %: Kenny Atkinson 31.3%
- Biggest Liability: Kenny Atkinson
- Odds Leader: Kenny Atkinson -700
This year’s Coach of the Year race has been shaped by Cleveland Cavaliers (44-10) bench boss Kenny Atkinson (-700), who leads in both handle percentage (31.3%) and biggest liability. Houston Rockets headman Ime Udoka (+900) has the next shortest odds. However, Mike Budenholzer (OTB) of the 26-28 Phoenix Suns (leads in ticket percentage (14.5%), showing that public bettors favored his case early on. With the NBA-leading Thunder (44-9) showing a level of unexpected dominance, this market could see late movement in the second half.
NBA Futures Market: Championship Odds Movement
Line Movement:
- Celtics: +310 to +225
- Cavaliers: +5000 to +800
- Lakers: +2500 to +1400
The Celtics remain the favorites, with a 17.7% handle percentage, showing confidence in their championship prospects. However, the Cavaliers have made a massive jump, with a +5000 opening line now down to +800, signaling both strong play and increased betting action. Cleveland, led by Donovan Mitchell (23.9 PPG, 4.8 APG, 1.4 SPG), has put together one of the strongest defensive units in the league. Following the Luka Doncic deal with the Dallas Mavericks for Anthony Davis, the surging Los Angeles Lakers have seen their odds nearly cut in half.
Eastern Conference Futures
- Favorite: Celtics (-105)
- Highest Ticket%: Cavaliers (39.6%)
- Highest Handle%: Celtics (40.8%)
- Biggest Liability: Cavaliers
The Celtics remain the clear favorite, but bettors have jumped on the Cavaliers (44-10), who lead all teams in ticket percentage at 39.6%. Their defensive strength and young core have made them an intriguing futures bet.
Western Conference Futures
- Favorite: Thunder (+105)
- Highest Ticket%: Thunder (17.8%)
- Highest Handle%: Thunder (23.9%)
- Biggest Liability: Lakers
The Thunder are the top favorite and have seen the largest betting interest in both ticket percentage (17.8%) and handle percentage (23.9%). However, the Lakers remain a major liability, indicating strong public backing despite their 30-25 record. With LeBron James averaging 24.3 PPG and 7.7 RPG, bettors continue to support L.A. as a title contender.
With MVP and Rookie of the Year races heating up and major movement in team futures, BetMGM’s betting insights provide a clear picture of where the money is flowing. While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama appear locked into their respective awards, markets like Most Improved Player and NBA Champion remain fluid. For savvy bettors, understanding public trends, line movement, and liabilities is key to making informed wagers as the postseason approaches.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
