As the MLB season gets underway, the American League (AL) and National League (NL) Most Valuable Player (MVP) and Cy Young contenders are becoming more defined. Betting odds and statistics for this season provide a clear picture of the frontrunners and biggest liabilities. With insights from BetMGM’s latest futures markets, we analyze the top contenders for these prestigious awards.
AL MVP Race
- Highest Ticket%: Bobby Witt Jr. 22.7%
- Highest Handle%: Bobby White Jr. 24.9%
- Biggest Liability: Julio Rodriguez
- Odds leader: Aaron Judge +300
Bobby Witt Jr. leads the AL MVP race in both ticket percentage (22.7%) and handle percentage (24.9%), showing significant public backing. His dynamic play for the Kansas City Royals has made him a prime contender. In 2024, Witt posted a .332 batting average with 109 RBIs, 32 home runs, and an impressive 31 stolen bases, demonstrating a unique combination of power and speed that has drawn comparisons to past greats. His ability to impact games on both sides of the ball keeps him firmly in the conversation. Witt’s +325 odds have him neck-and-neck with the odds leader.
Despite Witt’s dominance in betting, Aaron Judge remains the odds leader at +300. Judge continued his power-hitting prowess in 2024, boasting a career-high .332 average with an MLB-best 58 home runs and 144 runs batted in last season. Judge has 4.5% of tickets and 8.3% of the handle at BetMGM. As a former MVP, Judge’s consistency and ability to carry the New York Yankees’ offense make him a strong bet.
Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez is the biggest liability for BetMGM with odds of +2000. He produced a disappointing 2024, hitting .273 with 20 home runs, 68 RBIs, and 24 stolen bases, all career lows. Rodriguez’s opening odds of +4000 and faith in a bounce-back campaign are certainly factors in him being second in ticket (10.4%) and handle percentage (15.1%).
AL Cy Young Race
- Highest Ticket%: Garrett Crochet 10.9%
- Highest Handle%: Garrett Crochet 18.8%
- Biggest Liability: Garrett Crochet
- Odds leader: Tarik Skubal +350
Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers has taken command as the odds leader for AL Cy Young at +350. His stellar 2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts, and 0.92 WHIP highlight his ability to dominate hitters while limiting walks and home runs, bringing Skubal the award in 2024. If he maintains these numbers, he could become the first AL pitcher to win back-to-back awards since Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000. Skubal is third in tickets, holding 7.2%, and second in handle, with 11.2% of the handle.
The betting market, however, has been flooded with wagers on former Chicago White Sox pitcher Garrett Crochet (+500). He leads both ticket percentage (10.9%) and handle percentage (18.8%), making him the biggest liability. Crochet’s 3.58 ERA, 209 strikeouts, and impressive 12.9 K/9 last season suggest he can make a strong case in his fifth season. If he continues to rack up strikeouts and control his walks, he could challenge Skubal for the award with his new team, the Boston Red Sox.
NL MVP Race
- Highest Ticket%: Elly De La Cruz 23.8%
- Highest Handle%: Shohei Ohtani 33.0%
- Biggest Liability: Elly De La Cruz
- Odds leader: Shohei Ohtani +160
In the National League, Elly De La Cruz (+2200) has taken the betting world by storm. He leads ticket percentage (23.8%) and is the biggest liability in the NL MVP race. His combination of speed, power, and defensive ability makes him an electric player. De La Cruz recorded a .259 batting average, 25 home runs, 76 RBIs, and an astonishing MLB-leading 67 stolen bases in 2024, making him one of the most complete players in the league.
However, Shohei Ohtani remains the odds leader at +160 and the handle percentage leader (33.0%). Ohtani continued his dominance in his first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a 1.036 OPS, 54 home runs, and 130 RBI. Ohtani became the first player in baseball history to steal 50 bases and 50 homers in the same season last year. The former Angel will be back on the mound this season after not pitching last year. His ability to impact games as both a hitter and a pitcher continues to make him one of the most valuable players in MLB history.
With Ohtani’s ability to contribute on multiple fronts, he remains the favorite to win his third MVP award and second straight in the NL, but De La Cruz’s rise is something to watch as the season progresses.
NL Cy Young Race
- Highest Ticket%: Zack Wheeler 10.6%
- Highest Handle%: Zack Wheeler 11.8%
- Biggest Liability: Roki Sasaki
- Odds leader: Paul Skenes +200
Paul Skenes has quickly established himself as one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, leading the NL Cy Young odds at +200. The Pittsburgh Pirates second-year ace is coming off a Rookie of the Year campaign where he put up a 1.96 ERA, 133 innings pitched, 170 strikeouts, and a WHIP of 0.95. His dominance in strikeouts per nine innings (11.5 K/9) has made him a nightmare for opposing hitters. Skenes is second in ticket (9.7) and handle (9.2) percentage.
Zack Wheeler (+800) has been the most bet-on pitcher in the Cy Young race, leading in ticket percentage (10.6%) and handle percentage (11.8%). The Philadelphia Phillies ace has continued his elite form, posting a 2.57 ERA with 200 innings pitched and 224 strikeouts last season. While Wheeler has been more of a workhorse, Skenes’ dominance and ability to limit runs make him the favorite.
Roki Sasaki has emerged as the biggest liability in the Cy Young race. While he has flashed elite potential in the Japan Pacific League with a 2.35 ERA and 129 strikeouts in 111 innings, the LA Dodgers rookie must prove himself in the bigs. If Sasaki stays healthy and puts together a dominant showing, he should shorten his +5000 odds. The former top-ranked MLB prospect holds 5.5% of tickets and 7.7% of the handle.
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With the season just weeks away, the MVP and Cy Young races remain wide open. Bobby Witt Jr. has been the most popular bet for AL MVP, but Aaron Judge and Julio Rodriguez remain top contenders. In the AL Cy Young race, Tarik Skubal leads the odds, but Garrett Crochet has attracted significant betting interest.
In the NL, Elly De La Cruz’s electric play has made him the most bet-on MVP candidate, but Shohei Ohtani’s continued excellence keeps him as the favorite. Paul Skenes has taken over the Cy Young conversation on the pitching side, though Zack Wheeler remains a strong contender.
These races will likely see further shifts as the season unfolds, but the current frontrunners have positioned themselves well for individual hardware. Bettors and fans alike will closely watch how these stars perform down the stretch.
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