With Conference Tournaments getting underway and team selection less than a week away, the race for the National Championship is heating up. This time of year brings heightened betting action, and BetMGM has released updated odds, notable bets, and key trends shaping the market.
NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch Daily
Major National Championship Betting Trends
- Notable Bet: A $100,000 wager has been placed on Florida to win the National Championship at +900.
- Line Movement (Last Week to Now):
- Duke: +375 to +350
- Florida: +900 to +600
- Michigan State: +3000 to +2200
- Highest Ticket %:
- Duke (13.9%)
- Auburn (7.4%)
- Michigan State (5.9%)
- Highest Handle %:
- Duke (23.8%)
- Florida (15.7%)
- Houston (8.2%)
- Biggest Liabilities:
- Duke
- Florida
- Michigan State
Duke Blue Devils (+350)
Duke remains the betting favorite, with a slight line shift from +375 to +350 this week. With a 28-3 record and the No. 2 ranking in the AP Poll, the Blue Devils have been a dominant force. The consensus No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, Cooper Flagg leads the team in scoring (19.4 PPG), rebounding (7.6 RPG), assists (4.2 APG), steals (1.5 SPG), and blocks (1.3 BPG). Flagg is the most complete player in college basketball.
Duke’s team statistics reinforce their dominance, ranking 12th nationally in scoring (84.0 PPG) while holding opponents to just 60.1 PPG, the sixth-best mark in the country. Bettors have flocked to Duke, with the highest ticket percentage (13.9%) and handle percentage (23.8%), making them the sportsbook’s biggest liability.
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Florida Gators (+600)
Florida’s odds have dramatically shifted from opening at +5000 to +900 last week to now +600, largely due to heavy betting action, including a massive $100,000 wager. The Gators hold the No. 5 spot in the AP Poll with a 27-4 record and boast an elite offensive unit, averaging 84.5 PPG (ninth in the nation).
Walter Clayton Jr. (17.2 PPG) leads the Gators offensively, while Alex Condon provides a strong interior presence (8.0 RPG, 1.4 BPG). Florida also ranks among the best rebounding teams in the country, pulling down 42.4 RPG. Their recent surge in betting action, seeing 15.7% of the handle on just 5.7% of tickets, has made them one of the biggest liabilities for sportsbooks.
10 Biggest Must-See CBB Matchups This Week
Michigan State Spartans (+2200)
Once a longshot opening at +4000, Michigan State has seen their odds shorten to +2200 following a strong stretch of play to end the season. The Spartans (26-5) are ranked No. 8 in the AP Poll and have one of the most balanced teams in the tournament field.
Jaden Akins leads the team in scoring (12.9 PPG), while Jaxon Kohler dominates the glass (7.8 RPG). Michigan State’s defense is very good, allowing just 67.0 PPG. Their improved play has led to an increase in betting interest, placing them among the highest ticket percentages (5.9%) and making them another liability for sportsbooks.
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Auburn Tigers (+325)
Auburn currently holds the No. 1 ranking in the AP Poll with a 27-4 record and has been one of the most well-rounded teams in the nation. After opening at +2500, their odds have held steady in recent weeks, now at +325, making them one of the more consistent betting options.
Johni Broome has been the heart of the Tigers’ success, averaging 18.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG, and 2.4 BPG. Auburn ranks fifth in team scoring at 85.0 PPG and is a decent defensive team, limiting opponents to 70.0 PPG. Despite strong performance metrics, Auburn has not drawn as much betting action as Duke or Florida, with a ticket percentage of 7.4% and 8.1% of the handle.
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Houston Cougars (+800)
Houston is ranked No. 3 in the AP Poll and remains a strong contender with odds of +800 after opening at +1400. The Cougars thrive on elite defense, leading the nation by allowing just 58.1 PPG. They also rank among the best in opponent field goal percentage (38.2%), making them one of the toughest defensive matchups in the tournament.
L.J. Cryer is Houston’s top scorer (15.3 PPG), while J’Wan Roberts leads in rebounding (6.4 RPG). Houston’s defensive dominance has made them a popular pick, holding 8.2% of the total handle.
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Best Bets and Takeaways
- Duke remains the favorite with their combination of elite talent and strong betting support.
- Florida’s surge in betting action and line movement makes them one of the most intriguing plays.
- Michigan State is a rising value bet at +2200, given their recent form and defensive capabilities.
- Houston’s defense makes them a legitimate contender at +800, especially in a tournament setting.
- Auburn’s consistency as the No. 1 team makes them a stable bet despite lower betting percentages.
As the tournament field takes shape, expect more movement in the odds. Bettors looking for value might consider teams like Michigan State and Houston, while Duke and Florida remain the biggest sportsbook liabilities heading into March Matchups.
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