The march toward Super Bowl LX continues. The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots have both landed in Santa Clara for the NFL’s grand finale. As those teams put the finishing touches on preparations, the betting market continues to take shape.
Today, we’re running through the player prop markets and seeing where the money is flowing!
Kenneth Walker III’s Divisive Market
Kenneth Walker III handled most of the rushing duties for the Seahawks this season. However, he’s been less effective without his counterpart Zach Charbonnet on the field. Bettors are weighing those factors and Walker’s involvement ahead of Sunday’s clash versus the Pats.
As it stands, two of Walker’s props lead in ticket count. Bettors are taking firm positions on the over on 20.5 receiving yards and under 70.5 rushing yards.
Walker has been much less effective as the lone running back out of Seattle’s backfield. He’s coming off a 62-yard effort in the NFC Championship game, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. In the only other game without Charbonnet, Walker mustered a laughable 38 yards on 16 carries. We’re not anticipating a surging effort against a fierce Patriots’ defensive front.
Still, Walker adds a dynamic presence to the passing attack. Over his last three games, the veteran has totaled 114 receiving yards on 11 receptions. He’s recorded no fewer than 29 yards in any of those contests, and will undoubtedly be a factor on Sunday.
Hunter Henry Will Be A Force
While several key playmakers have emerged for the Patriots this season, bettors have keyed into Hunter Henry‘s presumed dominance against the Seahawks. Heading into the weekend, the over on his 38.5-yard receiving prop is the third-most bet proposition.
Henry has been Drake Maye’s safety blanket all season. He ranks second on the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, and is primed for a stronger showing than we’ve seen in recent weeks. Over the last two games, the Patriots’ tight end has just 17 yards on three receptions, putting him well below expected values. That makes Henry a natural progression candidate in the Super Bowl.
That anticipated growth is also reflected in Seattle’s lackluster defending. While they’ve stood up well against the pass all season, the Seahawks have given up 134 receiving yards to opposing tight ends in two playoff games.
With Henry shouldering most of the burden for New England, we’re in agreement with the market’s unrelenting support on over 38.5 receiving yards.
Sharp vs Public Support on Drake Maye’s Market
There are several clear divides forming in Drake Maye’s props. Public bettors have staked several key positions which are contraindicated in the sharp money flowing in the opposite direction.
Specifically, public bettors have hammered over 1.5 touchdowns. Nearly 80% of tickets are being written on the over, which reflects only 38% of the betting handle. As inferred, sharp money is flowing on the under, supporting a more tepid scoring performance from the Patriots.
While not as pronounced, casual bettors have also taken a stance on under 220.5 passing yards. To date, 54% of the tickets are coming in on the under, which reflects just 51% of the money wagered. That means more than a few sharp bettors are predicting a more robust throwing performance from the Patriots’ quarterback.
Bettors Backing Sam Darnold
After struggling to find his footing in the NFL, bettors are starting to flock toward Sam Darnold. The Seahawks need him to be at his best in the Super Bowl, and bettors are betting on that to happen.
The sharp vs. square divide is not evident in most of Darnold’s props. His passing yards total opened at 226.5, but was quickly bought up to 230.5. Still, 61% of the handle is coming in on the over.
Similarly, 73% of the handle and 80% of the tickets are being written on over 1.5 touchdown passes. That means sharp and public bettors are banding together, leaving sportsbooks rooting against scoring throws. Likewise, over 0.5 interceptions and over 20.5 completions are generating similar splits.
Final Thoughts
The betting market will continue to evolve as we approach kick-off. However, several key betting positions are already taking shape. Bettors are expecting big things from Kenneth Walker III, Hunter Henry, and Sam Darnold in the passing game, with more tempered expectations from Drake Maye.
Wherever your allegiances align, make sure you stay up to date with all the betting info as we inch closer to Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium!
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