It’s been too long, MLB. After a long offseason of waiting, players reported to camp this week, signalling the start of the 2026 season. Teams will spend the next week getting back into routine and finding their rhythm before Spring Training gets underway. From there, we’ve got less than six weeks until the start of the regular season.
While the action is not yet underway, the MLB futures board is already lighting up. Let’s take a look at the betting action and where the advantages lie!
AL & NL MVP Markets
Even the most casual baseball observers will recognize the dichotomy that has become the AL and NL MVP races. On the senior circuit, Shohei Ohtani continues to dictate the market. On the American League side of things, Aaron Judge is the man to beat.
As expected, both players sit atop their respective futures board at the outset of Spring Training. Judge is the odds-on favorite, currently priced at a modest +200 to claim his fourth MVP in five years. He’s easily the most bet player, commanding 35.3% of the betting handle, but an unsuspecting division rival has emerged as his closest competitor.
Roman Anthony has seemingly come out of nowhere to stand next to Judge as the top MVP candidate. His 15.1% ticket count is the highest figure on the board, making Anthony BetMGM’s biggest liability. It remains to be seen whether Anthony’s transformation comes to fruition, but casual bettors are hanging their hats on his +2000 odds.
There is less to dissect on the NL side of the odds board. Shohei Ohtani is a chalky -125 favorite, already soaking 45.1% of the betting handle. Given the current price and steady action, BetMGM is already taking steps to mitigate its risk on the Dodgers’ franchise cornerstone.
Cy Young Markets Deeper Than Ever
There is no shortage of quality arms in the MLB these days, and that’s reflected in the Cy Young betting odds. Ten AL and seven NL pitchers are commanding at least 4.0% of the betting market, setting this year’s race up as another battle to the finish.
The action is evenly split, but there are a few standout hurlers in both leagues. Not surprisingly, Paul Skenes is the main attraction in the National League. The Pirates’ ace leads the league in ticket count and handle, earning 28.1% and 44.0% of the shares, respectively. That exposure will eventually lead to a decrease in betting price, but so far, Skenes has only moved from +300 to +240. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is his closest competitor, but the nearly 30.0% drop in handle is indicative of Skenes’ presumed dominance again in 2026.
Things are much more evenly split on the American League side of things. Kyle Bradish has become a casual bettor’s money pit. So far, his 13.3% ticket count is tops at the sportsbook, but only captures 7.1% of the betting handle. That reflects mostly small wagers on his +4000 odds, but BetMGM still has to be cautious on how to proceed.
Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal appear to be the preferred options for sharp bettors. Crochet’s 10.3% handle is the highest on the books and vastly exceeds his 6.3% ticket count. Similarly, Skubal is commanding a 9.7% handle while only being written on 5.3% of tickets. At +400 and +300, respectively, this could be the best price we see on either pitcher all season.
Rookies of the Year
Inarguably, Rookie of the Year betting always turns out to be one of the most chaotic markets. Reputation precedes some of these players ahead of Spring Training. When the regular season hits, we always see an unsuspecting player come out of left field to take the bull by the horns.
This year, Kevin McGonigle is the clear betting favorite in the AL. The Tigers’ rookie sensation leads ticket and handle, and will be closely monitored by the sportsbook as the season progresses. Still, Trey Yesavage is the betting favorite, currently priced at +350 to build off the momentum he built in the MLB Playoffs.
A similar situation is playing out on the other side of the betting board. Konnor Griffin intersects the public and sharp betting lines, leading in both ticket count and handle. That makes him BetMGM’s biggest liability, but the sportsbook is holding steady with Nolan McLean as the odds-on favorite to claim this year’s NL ROY trophy.
It’s a Long Season
It’s tempting to evaluate the betting information and jump to some early-season conclusions. However, the MLB season is a marathon, not a sprint. It’s not about which players get hot early, rather the players who do things most consistently from start to finish. With that, the betting market always overreacts to Spring Training numbers or hot starts to the regular season.
A patient approach is recommended when it comes to betting MLB futures. Stay up to date with injuries and odds movement, making sure that you don’t abandon positions or are overly exposed after a bad week or a brief stint on the IL.
From now until the end of September, we’re with you every step of the way, soaking up all of the MLB betting action!
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
