The first signs of spring are upon us! Pitchers and catchers reported two weeks ago, with Spring Training starting this past weekend. Teams will have plenty of time to evaluate their fringe talent this spring, as all of the top players will abscond for the World Baseball Classic.
This year’s tournament runs from March 5 to March 17, being played at venues across the world before convening in Miami for the finale.
BetMGM released its latest betting data, and there are no surprises at the top of the odds board.
USA Leading the Way
Predictably, we’ll find the Americans priced as the chalky favorites to win this year’s best-on-best tournament. The USA has gone from +140 to -110, highlighting their perceived superiority in all things baseball.
As you would expect, that massive swing in betting fortune is a result of non-stop betting action. Heading into next week’s event, the Americans are attracting 35.5% of the tickets and 38.7% of the betting handle. While there is undoubtedly a fair share of public action among those wagers, the difference between tickets and handle also implies that some significant money is coming in on the States.
The USA can make it three straight trips to the WCB Final. If we’re following the betting action, that’s an expected result again in 2026.
Tarik Skubal’s Limited Participation
The Americans’ championship aspirations don’t live and die with one player. Still, we have apprehensions about their ability to get the most out of their starting rotation with Tarik Skubal’s limited participation. The Tigers’ ace has confirmed that he will only throw one round robin game before returning to Detroit’s Spring Training facilities.
Skubal is a free agent at the end of this season, and it sounds like he’s prioritizing longevity ahead of impending contract negotiations. With pitchers not stretched out yet, his limited participation could result in increased bullpen usage throughout the tournament.
The Other Top Contenders
This is the USA’s tournament to lose, but there are several other teams commanding a significant portion of the market share.
From a public perspective, Japan is the preferred landing spot. The defending champs have nearly matched the Americans’ in ticket count, falling just a few points below them at 30.3%. However, that flood of action is backed by only 14.9% of the betting handle, suggesting this is a casual bettor’s dream team. With that, their betting price has actually decreased, going from +300 to +350.
On that other side of the sharp-square dichotomy lies the Dominican Republic. Led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Dominicans are backed by the second-biggest market share, earning 24.0% of the handle. With only 15.3% of tickets, the Dominican Republic has become another sharp target at the WBC. Despite that sharp-led charge, the DR is holding steady as +400 frontrunners on the World Baseball Classic futures board.
The Best of the Rest
In a tournament that features 20 teams spread across four pools, there will assuredly be some unexpected results along the way. Still, most of the betting action is concentrated among the top four teams. You can include Venezuela with the USA and the Dominican Republic as another one of the betting favorites.
Arguably, the Venezuelans are the most prominent sharp target in this year’s classic. While their 4.4% ticket count lags behind the Americans and Dominicans, the gap is much smaller in terms of handle. As it stands, Venezuela is commanding 16.9% of the incoming money. As inferred, that is almost exclusively sharp action, precipitating a decrease in the betting price from +1400 to +1000.
The only other team earning above 1.0% handle is Puerto Rico. The island nation is only marginally above that threshold, coming in at 1.2%. Relative to their 3.6% ticket count, that signals more public involvement on the Puerto Ricans.
Final Thoughts
Every three years, the best players descend on the World Baseball Classic, and the tournament always lives up to the billing. We’re anticipating as much again in 2026, as the top baseball players from every country look to lift their respective teams to glory.
The betting action is concentrated on the top five teams, and there is a clear line drawn between sharp and public action. The USA, Dominican Republic, and Venezuela are on the sharp end of the spectrum. Conversely, Japan and Puerto Rico stand out as the preferred public targets.
Wherever your betting allegiance lies, expect another memorable World Baseball Classic. We’re keeping track of the betting action, staying informed throughout the tournament.
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