We’re in the last week of February, and you can start to feel the insanity set in. Sportsbooks are the most prone to the early stages of March Matchups, and several large wagers are already starting to shape the market.
As we gear up for the end of the regular season, conference tournaments, and eventually, The Big Dance, we expect these future markets to become a little more liquid. Let’s see where the early money is flowing!
Big Money Bets
Already, BetMGM has taken some significant money on a few teams. Surely, we’ll see more of this heavy action as tournament seeds are locked up. Still, the first few bets are quite revealing about which teams are expected to perform come March Matchups.
The Houston Cougars have become a force in the college basketball world. The Big 12 representatives have made it to the round of 16 in six straight seasons, including last year’s runner-up finish to the Florida Gators. Naturally, bettors are inclined to bet that trend persists another year.
Earlier this season, BetMGM took a $25,000 wager on Houston to win the National Championship at +1100, yielding a potential payout of $275,000. That wasn’t the only action, with another bettor putting down $50,000 at +900 for a $450,000 potential return.
Predictably, that action continues to put pressure on their odds, with the Cougars currently priced as +750 frontrunners to claim their first National Championship in school history.
Houston isn’t the only team to get big money support, though. The Arizona Wildcats, who defeated the Cougars over the weekend, are also a sharp target. One better put down $50,000 on the Wildcats at +450, which could net them $225,000, if Arizona goes all the way.
Similarly, $25,000 was placed on the UConn Huskies to reclaim their mantle as the best team in college basketball. At +900, that bettor stands to profit $225,000.
Handle Leaders
Handle is often a good tell for where sharp money is flowing. Not surprisingly, the Cougars and Wildcats stand out as preferred landing spots. However, a Big Ten contender is also represented in this conversation.
As it stands, Arizona and Houston are commanding 12.3% and 13.7% of the betting handle, respectively. Considering the Wildcats’ 6.9% and Cougars’ 6.8% ticket count, it’s safe to assume that the aforementioned wagers aren’t the only big money coming in on the Big 12 contenders.
We’re also seeing a ton of action on the Michigan Wolverines, albeit at a closer intersection to public support. So far, their 13.4% handle exceeds their 12.7% ticket count, accounting for a more even split amongst sharp and public bettors.
Duke – Always A Public Darling
Over the past few decades, the Duke Blue Devils have become synonymous with college basketball. That reputation precedes them again in 2025-26, with the presumptive ACC Champions poised to claim their third conference banner in five years.
As is the case most seasons, Duke is absorbing most of the public action ahead of March Matchups. So far, the Blue Devils account for 7.7% of the betting handle, a number that is dwarfed by their 8.7% ticket count. Infer what you will, but that split is telling. Most sharp bettors are avoiding the Blue Devils, seeking value on other teams.
BetMGM’s exposure on the Johnnies
While bettors consistently flock to the Power 4 conferences, we can’t overlook some of the contenders in other major conferences. Most notably, the St. John’s Red Storm have emerged as a top liability for BetMGM.
The Johnnies have looked solid in regular season play under Rick Pitino. However, the Hall of Fame coach needs to figure out a way to win when it matters most. Pitino’s lone championship was vacated due to a Louisville scandal, and the Red Storm fizzled in last year’s tournament.
An inferior tournament reputation isn’t stopping bettors from getting a piece of St. John’s, though. Currently listed as +5000 longshots to win the National Championship, the Red Storm account for 2.0% of the betting handle. If they pull off a deep run, BetMGM will be left sweating their exposure at those long odds.
Keep an eye on Line Movement
The betting action is just starting to heat up, and it’s just a matter of time before we see even larger wagers come in on some of the top contenders. A bettor’s most valuable tool is staying up to date with the betting odds, monitoring movement for the slightest advantage.
We’re along for the ride, assessing the betting action as we race closer to one of the biggest sports betting events of the year. Stay tuned for all the analysis, as March Matchups moves into focus over the coming weeks.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
