When Edward Pola and George Wyle penned “It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year”, little did they know that it would soon start to describe the insanity of college basketball in March.
The regular season has drawn to a close, and conference champions have claimed their mantles. The betting public has set its sights on March Matchups, but the sharpest bettors are ready to exploit the softer conference tournaments betting markets.
Let’s dive in and run through some of the more intriguing mid-major conference tournaments this weekend!
Wide Open Tournaments.
Oftentimes, one team rises to the front of the pack in these mid-major offerings. But that’s not the case in the Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, or Southern conferences.
Atlantic Sun
Starting in the northeast, the Atlantic Sun features a handful of teams gunning for the automatic March Matchups berth. Central Arkansas claimed the regular season title, on the strength of a 15-3 record and tie-breaker over Austin Peay. But Queens and Lipscomb are lurking in the background, earning 13 and 12 wins, respectively.
That parity is reflected in the betting market, with those four teams separated 180 betting points. The Governors might be the live underdog to consider, but if Lipscomb extracts maximum value on offense, the Bisons could upend the rest of the field.
Big Sky
The Big Sky conference is known for its wide-open landscapes in the northwestern part of the country, and that’s exactly what we’re expecting throughout the conference tournament.
As it stands, Montana State is installed as the betting favorite, listed at +310. From there, Eastern Washington (+330), Northern Colorado (+390), and Portland State (+460) are all within striking distance. That’s without considering Weber State or Montana, who both finished with 10 wins in conference play.
Portland State relied on its 35th-ranked defense to claim the Big Sky regular season title. That superiority gives the Vikings an edge over its Big Sky counter parts and could help them punch their ticket to the Big Dance.
Southern Conference
Arguably, the gap between the top six teams in the Southern Conference is the smallest among all mid-major programs. From East Tennessee State (+190) to Wofford (+800), any of those squads could go on an extended run this weekend.
East Tennessee State was named regular season champions, out-pacing the rest of the pack by at least two wins. Still, Wofford, Samford (+490), and Mercer (+500) were tied for second place with identical 11-7 records.
No team was hotter than Western Carolina (+700) down the stretch, who finished on a six-game win streak. Conversely, Furman dropped five of its last eight, watching its tournament betting odds drop to +500.
The Southern Conference winner will be determined by which team executes over the weekend. In that regard, you have to like Western Carolina’s chances of maintaining its torrid play.
Clear Favorites
Undoubtedly, strange things happen all the time in the conference tournaments; however, it will take a monumental upset to knock any of these clear favorites off their stride.
West Coast Conference
Over the past few years, the Gonzaga Bulldogs have asserted themselves as a perennial National Championship contender. That’s the case again this season, as they enter the West Coast tournament as prohibitive -240 chalk.
Saint Mary’s (+250) has the best chance of knocking the Bulldogs off their stride this weekend. The Gaels finished with an identical 16-2 record, including wins in eight straight to close out the regular season. If they operate efficiently on the defensive side of the ball, Saint Mary’s has the potential to cut Gonzaga’s reign short.
Patriot League
Similarly, the Navy Midshipmen have asserted themselves as the class of the Patriot League. They enter as hefty -240 favorites, and they face one of the most unobstructed paths to the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
No one came close to matching Navy’s intensity this year. Finishing the year with a sterling 17-1 conference record, finishing with six more wins than the next closest teams.
Bettors may talk themselves into taking a flyer on Lehigh (+700), Colgate (+500), or Boston U (+750), but none of those teams have the power to dethrone the Midshipmen.
Northeast Conference
With so much mayhem across the college basketball world, you’d be forgiven for losing sight of the Northeast Conference. However, the LIU Sharks have established themselves as the premier threat in the Northeast.
Finishing with a 22-10 record overall and 15-3 in conference play, few teams had the wherewithal to contend with the Sharks. They play a stifling brand of defense, with a systematic attack on offense.
We’re not convinced that the -165 reflects LIU’s ability to win this year’s Northeast Conference tournament. Mecyhurst (+300) stands as their most sincere competition, but it’s unlikely that the Lakers keep pace with the Sharks offensively.
Final Thoughts
This is just a taste of what to expect this weekend, as we gear up for March Matchups. There are 14 mid-major conferences, the Power 4, A10, AAC, and Big East, leaving 365 teams to compete for 68 spots in this year’s NCAA draw.
The next few weeks are a war of attrition, with the best teams living to fight another day. Enjoy the conference tournaments for what they are, but batten down the hatches; this is going to be a fight to the bitter end.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
