Years of recruiting, months of hard work, and weeks of gearing up have all played into this moment. The 2026 college basketball tournament tips off on Thursday morning, with the top 64 teams in the country battling it out for college basketball supremacy.
The futures market has undergone several substantial moves, and BetMGM has solidified its championship board for March Matchups.
Who are the top contenders? Which teams are the biggest liabilities? And where is the money flowing ahead of this year’s tournament?
Top Contenders
Inarguably, the Michigan Wolverines and Arizona Wildcats were the biggest movers on this year’s futures board. Michigan opened as +2500 mid-range options, moving all the way to the top of the list as +325 chalk. Likewise, the Wildcats had a seismic shift, jumping from +4000 to +475.
Sandwiched between those teams is perennial frontrunner – the Duke Blue Devils. The ACC champs were always positioned near the front of the pack, but are currently installed with the second-shortest odds at +333.
The Florida Gators and Houston Cougars round out the top five. Florida’s unceremonious end to the season stalled its price climb. The Gators went from +2000 to +600, but their SEC tournament collapse could be a sign of things to come. While Houston fought valiantly in the Big 12 tournament championship, the Cougars came up short versus Arizona. With that, their price actually dipped ahead of the tournament, going from +900 to +1000.
Handle and Ticket Count
Not surprisingly, the top contenders are all positioned as the leaders in handle and Ticket count.
Michigan and Duke are on the public end of the spectrum. The Wolverines have accumulated the most tickets, being written on 12.0% of the slips, albeit with a robust 14.8% handle. The Blue Devils rank second, with a 10.0% ticket count and less inspired 10.0% handle.
Conversely, Arizona and Florida remain the most heavily-backed sharp contenders. Florida’s 12.4% handle vastly outpaces its 7.7% ticket count. Slightly below that, the Wildcats’ 11.9% handle is still significantly ahead of its 8.0% ticket share.
BetMGM Liabilities
As inferred by the hefty ticket versus handle split, the Florida Gators represent one of BetMGM’s most notable liabilities. They are joined by two other squads, one recognizable and one dark horse with an immaculate record.
The UConn Huskies didn’t have the triumphant campaign they were hoping for. The Blue Blood program came up short in the Big East, falling second in the regular season and losing in the tournament championship. Still, bettors are piling on the Huskies.
The Miami (OH) Redhawks have come out of nowhere this season, going 31-1 throughout the season en route to a MAC treble. With +20000 odds, BetMGM is tremendously exposed if the Redhawks continue their run in the big dance.
Big Money Bets
As is typically the case, big money wagers can offer some glimpse into the sharp mindset. With that, BetMGM continues to open its doors to substantive action.
Most notably, a $100,000 wager was placed on the Purdue Boilermakers to make the semifinals. At 6-1, that bettor stands to collect a $600,000 payday if Purdue puts on its glass slippers.
Arizona’s dominance isn’t lost on big money bettors, with the Wildcats collecting a $50,000 bet at +450. Likewise, Houston has also been a sharp target, collecting $50,000 and $25,000 bets to claim this year’s trophy.
Final Thoughts
The madness is about to get started, and there are still plenty of ways to profit. Future positions on top contenders may not be the most efficient way to cash in, but there is still plenty of value in backing longshots to go on deep runs. Whether game lines, stages of elimination, or hedging, bettors can guarantee that the college basketball season ends on a high note.
New to sports betting? First, explore our Introduction to Sports Betting. Then check out our recommendations at Flip The Switch for online sportsbooks, along with offers to get started. And if you’re not an avid sports fan, you can still find some fun and unusual bets to enjoy!
