The college basketball season is drawing to a close, and the insanity will soon envelope us all. That’s right, March Matchups officially tips off this week with 68 teams vying for the 2026 national championship. Sixty of those teams are guaranteed a spot in this weekend’s mayhem, but eight have to punch their way in via play-in games.
We’re breaking down the odds and previewing the initial college basketball games!
UMBC Retrievers vs Howard Bison
Tuesday, March 17
6:40 p.m. ET
Moneyline: UMBC -105 | Howard -115
Spread: UMBC +1.5 (-120) | Howard -1.5 (+100)
Total: 141.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Two mid-major champs stand toe-to-toe looking to start their Cinderella run. The Howard Bison enter this showdown as short favorites, but bettors are lining up to get a piece of the UMBC Retrievers in this one.
Both teams emphasize defensive play, albeit without sacrificing too much on offense. In that regard, Howard does have a modest edge. The Mid-Eastern champs average more points per game and plays a more stifling brand of defense. However, UMBC is slightly more efficient with the ball in its hands, shooting 47.1% from the field, including 36.1% from distance.
Expect both defenses to stand up in this pivotal First Four clash. In the end, the victor will be determined by whichever team can make the most of their offensive touches. In that regard, we have more trust in the Retrievers.
Predicted Outcome: UMBC 71 – Howard 68
Texas Longhorns vs NC State Wolf Pack
Tuesday, March 17
9:15 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Texas -105 | NC State -115
Spread: Texas +1.5 (-115) | NC State -1.5 (-105)
Total: 158.5 Over (-105) | Under (-115)
Two Power 4 squads have to take the long way into the tournament, as the Texas Longhorns take on the NC State Wolf Pack in Dayton. The Longhorns have the superior reputation, but we’re not discounting the Wolf Pack’s chances in this heavyweight bout.
The Longhorns and Wolf Pack play with unrelenting resolve on offense, abandoning any semblance of defense. Texas ranks 26th in the country, averaging 83.8 points per game. NC State is close behind, coming in 27th at 83.7. While the Longhorns prefer to score from the interior, the ACC representatives can make it rain from beyond the arc.
Offensive efficiency will be the determining factor, and NC State holds a substantive advantage. We predict they will shoot the lights out from distance, pulling away late and easily covering the spread.
Predicted Outcome: NC State 84 – Texas 77
Prairie View A&M Panthers vs Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Wednesday, March 18
6:40 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Prairie View +140 | Lehigh -165
Spread: Prairie View +3.5 (-110) | Lehigh -3.5 (-110)
Total: 143.5 Over (-105) | Under (-115)
Prairie View and Lehigh won their respective conferences, but that wasn’t enough to guarantee a spot in the 64-team bracket. These squads battle it out on Wednesday, for a spot in Friday’s first-round matchup versus top-ranked Florida.
Both teams got hot at the right time of year. The Panthers are riding a seven-game win streak into the tournament, whereas the Mountain Hawks have won six in a row. Still, there’s a pronounced difference in terms of analytics, with Prairie View holding a decisive edge on defense. They rank 93rd in defensive efficiency, compared the Lehigh’s less appealing 176th ranking.
Defense wins championships. Prairie View may not be able to ride than mantra deep into the tournament, but it should be more than enough to get past Lehigh on Wednesday night.
Predicted Outcome: Prairie View 61 – Lehigh 59
Miami (OH) Redhawks vs SMU Mustangs
Wednesday, March 18
9:15 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Miami (OH) +240 | SMU -290
Spread: Miami (OH) +6.5 (-105) | SMU -6.5 (-115)
Total: 163.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
The Miami (OH) Redhawks and SMU Mustangs close out the First Four, in what should be the most another widely entertaining play-in game. The betting market is heavy on the Mustangs, but we’re not convinced this is as one-sided as the spread implies.
The Redhawks rank prominently in terms of offensive efficiency. They averaged the second-most points per game this season, and play with unforgiving pace. That should expose the Mustangs’ defensive shortcomings as they try and keep pace with their MAC counterparts. Moreover, SMU has struggled down the stretch, dropping five of six, while getting torched by opponents.
Miami is rife with upset potential, and the Mustangs won’t be able to slow them down. The Redhawks stun SMU on Wednesday night.
Predicted Outcome: Miami (OH) 90 – SMU 80
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