Opening Day may be scheduled for tomorrow, but the 2026 MLB season officially starts tonight, as the New York Yankees battle the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. We are eagerly awaiting the next seven months of baseball action, and have spent the offseason preparing for a litany of futures wagers.
Today, we’re breaking down the MVP and Cy Young markets, offering our insights into who this year’s winners will be.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Aarong Judge remains the model of analytics excellency. Ranking in the 100th percentile in virtually every offensive category, the Yankees’ slugger is once again the betting favorite to claim this year’s AL MVP. Still, we can’t overlook the value on another underappreciated slugger.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has quietly asserted himself as one of the best players in the game. While he doesn’t rank as prominently in advanced metrics, Vladdy Jr. has been the offensive and defensive catalyst for the Toronto Blue Jays.
We saw it in last year’s playoff run and have witnessed it throughout every regular season, albeit somewhat inconsistently. Guerrero Jr. has all the makings of an MVP candidate. His power is always on display, he’s a team leader on defense, and he can put his team on his back. If he does it for the full 162-game schedule, this will be the year Vladdy Jr. is crowned AL MVP.
Predicted Winner: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1600)
National League
Like the American League, the NL features one player who reigns above the rest. Shohei Ohtani has become the MLB’s posterboy, relying on his dual-skillset to separate himself from the pack. Again, his dominance cannot be understated, but there are too many up-and-comers in the Senior Circuit to not take a look at some of the other contenders.
Most notably, Corbin Carroll has emerged as one of the best players in the league. The Arizona Diamondbacks’ outfielder flashes all five tools every time he steps onto the field, and we expect more people to take notice in 2026.
Carroll is one of the few players who has reached the 30-30 milestone in recent seasons. Last year, he sent 31 homers into orbit, adding 32 stolen bags. If he moderately ratchets up his production, there will be no denying him this year’s MVP award.
The last two players to reach the 40-40 threshold have won MVP (Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr.). We’re betting Carroll joins that exclusive club and punches his ticket as the Most Valuable Player.
Predicted Winner: Corbin Carroll (+2500)
Cy Young
American League
Over the past couple of seasons, Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet have been in an arm’s race to see who could capture the AL Cy Young award. The Tigers’ ace has been the victor each time, but this will be the year Crochet exacts his revenge.
There is a lot to like about Crochet’s analytics profile. He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in expected ERA, chase rate, and strikeout percentage. Moreover, we have him earmarked for progression this season.
Over the past few years, Crochet is operating above his expected ERA. His actual mark of 3.15 is significantly above his expected mark of 2.88, implying that we should see a downward trend in 2026. Further, he was more than capable of taming the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park, pointing toward renewed success this season.
There are a number of quality arms in the American League. Still, this is Garrett Crochet’s award to lose in 2026.
Predicted Winner: Garrett Crochet (+350)
National League
The National League situation is analogous to the AL. Paul Skenes is the undisputed frontrunner, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto coming in a close second. Still, there is one other pitcher who could upend the betting market and finally cash in on the first Cy Young award of his career.
Zack Wheeler is working his way back into MLB form; although, he will likely have a stint on the IL and/or minors to start the season. That doesn’t diminish his analytics dominance or Cy Young potential. Wheeler has been one of the most dominant arms in the majors recently, finishing in the 98th percentile in expected ERA, 97th percentile in expected batting average, and 96th percentile in strikeout rate.
Despite those elite metrics, the Philadelphia Phillies’ ace has yet to claim a Cy Young award. Wheeler has finished as runner-up in 2021 and again in 2024, leading the league in WAR in both seasons.
We’re calling it now. This is Wheeler’s year. He’s been overlooked to start the season, but we predict he will end the season as this year’s NL Cy Young winner.
Predicted Winner: Zack Wheeler (+1800)
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