The Stanley Cup Playoffs evoke all of the emotions. Excitement, intensity, heartbreak. All of it. The Buffalo Sabres experienced the worst of it on Monday night, dropping a 3-2 overtime decision to the Montreal Canadiens. In doing so, the Habs became the fourth and final team to secure their place in the NHL Conference Finals.
With that, we’re digging into the final four and previewing what to expect in these tantalizing best-of-7 series.
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Montreal Canadiens
Series Odds: Hurricanes -265 | Canadiens +215
Stanley Cup Odds: Hurricanes +165 | Canadiens +650
Goaltending will be the theme of the Eastern Conference Final, as the two hottest netminders step into the blue paint. Frederik Andersen has allowed just 10 goals across eight playoff games, posting a 95.1% save percentage along the way. Jakub Dobes has fluctuated a little more than his Hurricanes’ counterpart, but is still toting a tidy 91.0% save percentage across 14 starts. Ultimately, this series will be decided by whichever team can make the most of its scoring opportunities. In that regard, we can’t dismiss the Canadiens’ chances.
Montreal’s offense has been unstoppable of late. Under the tutelage of head coach Martin St. Louis, every line has scoring potential. Eight different skaters have recorded at least three goals and 11 players have multiple tallies. As we’ve seen, that kind of scoring depth plays well in the postseason. The Habs can deploy any of their four lines to yield positive results. Moreover, their production metrics point toward sustained output in the third round. The Original Six franchise has 15 high-danger chances in two of its last three, averaging 10.7 opportunities per game over its previous six.
The Carolina Hurricanes’ offensive production or scoring hasn’t been nearly as impressive as Montreal’s. The Metropolitan Division winners have been held to seven or fewer quality chances in four of their last six, yielding a more modest per game average of 9.2. Further, they have been held to two or fewer goals at five-on-five in six of their right playoff games. Carolina’s scoring depth is also much less impressive. Only four skaters have recorded three or more goals with just five reaching double-digits.
Andersen and Dobes will maintain their usual standards, meaning scoring depth will be the deciding factor in the Eastern Conference Final. Everyone has already dismissed the Canadiens’ chances, but we think they have another upset up their sleeves against the Hurricanes.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Series Odds: Avalanche -275 | Golden Knights +225
Stanley Cup Odds: Avalanche +135 | Canadiens +600
The Colorado Avalanche are looking to fulfill their destiny as Stanley Cup Champions. Since the start of the season, Colorado has been priced as the odds-on favorite to win it all. Needing just two series wins to climb that mountain, the Avalanche’s next step comes against the Vegas Golden Knights in the Western Conference Final.
Colorado has the analytics profile to match its Stanley Cup odds. Through nine playoff games, the Avalanche lead the league with a 56.0% expected goals-for rating. That puts them right on track with their regular season average of 56.4%, albeit with slight room for improvement. More impressively, they’ve eclipsed 65.4% in each of their last two, while outplaying their opponents in four of their last five. With home-ice advantage, it’s unlikely the Avs’ metrics deteriorate in Round 3.
Analytically, the Golden Knights can’t hang with the Avalanche. Vegas sits a distant seventh in postseason expected goals-for rating, churning out a slightly above-average 50.6% mark. But with below-average Corsi and shots-for ratings, the Pacific Division winners will spend more time chasing the puck than having it on their sticks.
Those issues look worse across the Knights’ more recent sample. Vegas was thoroughly outplayed by the Ducks in the second round. Not only did they produce a lackluster 47.5% eGF rating, but they were also outplayed in all but two of those six games. If not for half of their goals coming on the powerplay, the Knights could have suffered a very different fate against the Ducks.
The Avalanche are significantly better than the Golden Knights, and this betting price doesn’t do them justice. We’re betting it’s all academic for Colorado as it punches its way into the Stanley Cup Final.
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