We live for the on-court action of the NBA but we stay for the off-court drama. There have already been a few curveballs this offseason, and we’re just two weeks into it. LeBron James has confirmed that he won’t sign with the Lakers, Giannis Antetokounmpo was dealt to the Heat, and Ja Morant was finally sent packing. Arguably, the most impactful move was the Toronto Raptors landing Kawhi Leonard on Tuesday night.
Naturally, all of these moves have had an impact on the BetMGM NBA futures board; however, none more so than the Leonard deal. Let’s take a look to see how the odds have shifted overnight.
Raptors Catapulted to Contenders
This Raptors team made serious headway in 2025-26. Without a winning record since 2021-22, Toronto languished in an uncompetitive Eastern Conference. From 2022-23 to 2023-24, the Atlantic Division representatives compiled just 55 wins and a .335 winning percentage.
Those awful performances stand in stark contrast to what we saw last season. The Raps climbed to third in the Atlantic, finishing with a 42-36 record and earning the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. As is the case with most young teams, they learned some hard lessons in the opening round, losing in seven games to the Cavaliers.
Despite that growth, BetMGM wasn’t taking the Raps seriously as contenders. They opened as distant +15000 longshots on the NBA futures board, presuming more hard-fought playoff losses were on the immediate horizon.
Kawhi Changes Everything
We started to see a shift in the Raptors’ outlook once the Kawhi Leonard rumors started to swirl. Ahead of the trade confirmation, Toronto’s NBA Championship odds improved slightly to +12500, with more people buying the rumor. Still, BetMGM couldn’t have predicted the flood of betting action they were about to see once the trade was made official.
Upon confirmation that Kawhi was headed back to Toronto, the Raptors became the most-bet team in the Eastern Conference. According to BetMGM, over 14% of the tickets are now being written on the Raps to reclaim their championship pedestal. Predictably, their odds have shrunk substantially, with Toronto now priced as a +2200 contender.
Moreover, they have vaulted to the top of the Eastern Conference Champions futures board. After the trade, the Raptors have earned a staggering 45% of tickets to represent the East in the NBA Finals, precipitating a +800 to +300 drop in their futures price.
Does Kawhi Still Got It?
The betting market speaks for itself – everyone believes in the Raptors as contenders. It begs the question, though, does Kawhi still got it?
Injury management has become synonymous with Leonard’s NBA tenure. He’s played more than 65 games only once over the past nine seasons, an approach that has caused rifts with former teams. The Raptors will once again have to embrace that mentality if they want Kawhi to lead them on another championship run.
What we do know is that the injury management approach has helped Kawhi Leonard remain one of the premier basketball players when he’s on the court. The now 35-year-old is a career 49.9% shooter, improving to 51.1% over his last four seasons with the Clippers.
Further, he remains a high-volume presence, averaging 19.4 field goal attempts across 65 games in 2025-26. With that, he averaged 24.6 points per game throughout his Clippers tenure, ending with a career-best 27.9 last season.
We know that the Raptors won’t get a full 82 games out of Kawhi Leonard. But if he maintains his lofty standards when he is on the court, there’s no denying the Raptors potential as championship contenders.
The Dust Still Needs to Settle
Kawhi is just the latest domino to fall, and there are plenty of other moves that could potentially rupture the NBA Championship futures board.
Most notably, LeBron James is still deciding on his next destination. It’s been speculated that he will land in Golden State, reforming the Warriors into a Western Conference threat. The Dubs opened as distant +6000 afterthoughts to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy next season. When LeBron informed the Lakers he won’t be returning to LA, the Warriors’ odds dropped to +4000. After reports started to emerge that he was considering Golden State, those odds fell to +3000.
Where there’s smoke, there’s fire and bettors are bringing their jerry cans to the fray. The Warriors have attracted more championship bets than any other team, accounting for a mind-numbing 45% of the action since Monday.
Final Thoughts
Get your popcorn ready, because there is still plenty of drama left to unfold. LeBron James represents the next big move, but Leonard’s impact on the betting market is undeniable. Unlike other teams who have made moves this offseason, the Raptors are now viewed as the pre-eminent threat in the Eastern Conference. If LeBron’s plans change, we’re anticipating more cascading effects on the NBA Championship futures board.
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