With Super Bowl LIX set to take place in New Orleans, the highly anticipated halftime show will feature Kendrick Lamar, making his second Super Bowl performance after his guest appearance in 2022. While football fans are eager to see if the Philadelphia Eagles or Kansas City Chiefs can take home the Lombardi Trophy, bettors are turning their attention to prop bets for the halftime performance.
The two biggest markets for the halftime show are what song Kendrick Lamar will perform first and how many songs will be played in total. Using historical data, chart success, and performance trends, let’s break down the betting value on these halftime props.
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Number of Songs Performed: Over/Under 10.5 Songs
Odds at BetMGM:
- Over 10.5 songs (-105)
- Under 10.5 songs (-125)
Super Bowl halftime performances typically run around 12-14 minutes, meaning Kendrick Lamar will have limited time to squeeze in as many hits as possible. Most headliners perform 10-12 songs, often blending multiple tracks into medleys to fit the format.
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Looking at recent halftime performances:
- Usher (2024) performed 11 songs
- Rihanna (2023) performed 14 songs
- Dr. Dre & Friends (2022) featured 11 songs
- The Weeknd (2021) performed nine songs
Lamar’s deep catalog allows for quick transitions, but he often performs extended versions of songs, which could limit the total count. Given his previous live set tendencies and past halftime trends, the under 10.5 songs (-125) seems like the safer bet.
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First Song Performed Odds
Odds at BetMGM:
- Humble (+150)
- Not Like Us (+375)
- King Kunta (+400)
- Squabble Up (+450)
- Euphoria (+600)
- Like That (+750)
- Bitch, Don’t Kill My Vibe (+800)
- United in Grief (+900)
- Swimming Pools (+900)
- Money Trees (+1000)
- Maad City (+1000)
- All the Stars (+1100)
- Alright (+1400)
- Element (+2000)
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Breaking Down the First Song Odds
Choosing the first song of a Super Bowl halftime show requires analyzing the artist’s recent setlists, charting history, and theme relevance. Here’s a deeper look at the top contenders.
Humble (+150)
Lamar’s biggest commercial hit, “Humble,” reached #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 and remains a defining song of his career. Given its instantly recognizable piano intro and high-energy nature, it makes sense as an opener. Lamar has used it as an intro track before, making it the favorite in the betting market.
Not Like Us (+375)
The viral Drake diss track has dominated the charts in recent months, hitting #1 on the Hot 100, but its relevancy for a Super Bowl show is questionable. The song is aggressive in nature, and while its energy is perfect for an arena, the NFL may opt for a more mainstream-friendly selection.
King Kunta (+400)
A classic hit from To Pimp a Butterfly, “King Kunta,” has been used to open multiple Kendrick Lamar concerts. The song’s funk-inspired instrumental and energetic buildup make it a great choice to kick things off in a stadium setting.
Squabble Up (+450)
One of Lamar’s newest singles, “Squabble Up,” is a surprise contender. While not as widely known as other songs on this list, its recent release means it could be prioritized to maximize exposure. If the goal is to promote a fresh track, this could be a sneaky value bet.
Euphoria (+600)
A deeper cut, “Euphoria,” has gained traction among Lamar’s hardcore fans but lacks the mainstream appeal of some of his bigger hits. This one feels like a long shot.
Bitch, Don’t Kill My Vibe (+800)
A fan favorite from Good Kid, M.A.A.D City, this song has performed well on the charts, peaking at #32 on the Hot 100. However, its slower tempo makes it unlikely to be an opening track.
Swimming Pools (+900)
One of Lamar’s biggest early hits, “Swimming Pools,” reached #17 on the Hot 100 and is widely recognized by casual fans. While the song remains a staple of Lamar’s live sets, its melodic intro makes it less likely to be the opener compared to more high-energy tracks.
Maad City (+1000)
A Super Bowl needs high-energy moments, and “Maad City” certainly delivers. The track’s beat switch and legendary status among hip-hop fans could make it an ideal selection for the second or third song in the set.
All the Stars (+1100)
The Black Panther soundtrack hit was a massive success, peaking at #7 on the Hot 100, but it’s more likely to be featured later in the performance rather than as an opener. This is the first song on the list featuring SZA, who will accompany Kendrick in New Orleans.
Alright (+1400)
A cultural anthem, “Alright” remains one of Kendrick Lamar’s most important songs. However, its placement in the Super Bowl halftime show feels like it would come later in the set rather than as the intro.
Best Bet for First Song
The safest bet is Humble (+150), which checks all the boxes: mainstream appeal, high-energy start, and proven live opener potential. If you’re looking for a longer shot with value, King Kunta (+400) offers a strong mix of recognition and performance history.
Final Betting Recommendations
- Best Bet: First Song – Humble (+150)
- Longshot Pick: First Song – King Kunta (+400)
- Best Bet: Total Songs – Under 10.5 (-125)
Super Bowl LIX’s halftime show will be one of the most anticipated in years, and with Kendrick Lamar taking center stage in New Orleans, fans can expect a mix of classic hits and new material. Whether you’re betting on the first song played or the total songs performed, history suggests sticking to mainstream hits and expecting under 10.5 total songs for a solid betting strategy.
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