Throughout our time on Flip The Switch, we’ve talked about how casino offers are generated. Within that, theoretical loss, or what you would be expected to lose based on the amount you’re betting, the game you’re playing, and the house edge of the game, is a key part of that calculation (generally calculated as a daily average, hence average daily theoretical, or ADT).
But on occasion, bigger players who have an unfortunate run sometimes will get to pull on a second lever, and that’s their actual loss (so it’s pretty much what you’d expect it to mean). Where theoretical loss is how much you’re expected to lose, actual loss is how much you were down when you stopped.
As games get more volatile, it’s often possible for your actual loss to be well above your theoretical loss. Take a slot machine that is set up with a return to player of 90%. If you wagered $1,000 in bets on that slot, in the long run it would be expected to return $900, or 90% of that $1,000.
But as gamblers, we know it can swing very heavily in either direction. You could get a jackpot, winning well above the $1,000 you wagered. Or you can lose a lot more than the $100 you’re expected to lose.
Sometimes, when a player loses enough, and it’s a dramatically different number than the expected theoretical loss, hosts have some flexibility. An example might be the better of what their offer would have been based on theoretical loss, which is often calculated in a range of 20% to 40% of the expected loss, or 10% of actual loss.
So if you placed $10,000 in bets, and were expected to lose $1,000, but instead lost $4,000, your normal offer would be in a range of $200-400, whereas with your actual loss the calculation of 10% would be $400 – the host might be able to do something, especially if you haven’t received that level of offers.
Of course, getting rebated a portion of your losses can feel a bit like insult to injury, because you had to lose so badly to qualify. It’s looked at in our eyes similarly to loss back casino offers where you have to lose to get any benefits. But certainly it’s better than nothing at all, and can help take the edge off a bit.
Obviously, with hosts involved, it’s one of those things that gets broken out for bigger bettors most of the time, but it’s helpful to know such a scenario exists, and have had at least one situation personally where over a few day trip I lost enough that a host was able to do back-end comps based on actual loss because of how bad a run I had.
