For the first time since 2014, NHL players will be attending the Olympics. We’re all the better because of it, as we watch the first best-on-best hockey tournament in over a decade. Not surprisingly, this has resulted in a cascading effect in the betting market.
The usual suspects are atop the betting board, but can one of the unsuspecting teams further down the list make a surprise run through the Men’s Hockey Tournament in Milan?
Canada Front and Center
With Canada’s best players back in the fold, it’s not surprising to see the True North, Strong, and Free atop the betting board. The Canadians opened as +230 favorites, but have quickly moved to even-money (+100) with the Men’s Tournament just getting underway.
As expected, that odds movement is captured in the betting handle and ticket count. Canada is commanding over half of the money, with 55.8% of the handle coming in on the Red and White. Still, that represents just 33.3% of the tickets. From that, we can infer that sharp money is flooding in on the Canadians in Milan.
Team USA – Public Darlings
On the other side of the sharp-square dichotomy sit Canada’s most prominent rivals – Team USA. The Americans have also seen a significant jump up the betting board, but their movement is on the back of public money.
As it stands, 57.0% of the tickets are coming in on Team USA. While that flood of action would inundate most sportsbooks, that accounts for just 40.3% of the betting handle. Wisely, BetMGM has adjusted the odds to limit its exposure on the Americans’ potential deep run through the knock-out round. Team USA has gone from +280 to +190, following closely behind its Canadian counterparts.
Scandinavian Strength
With Canada and the USA accounting for over 90% of the betting action, BetMGM can sleep easy knowing its exposure on the rest of the field is extremely limited.
Sweden is the third-most bet team, but its 4.6% ticket and 2.1% handle pale in comparison to the two frontrunners. The Tre Kronor feature a deep roster of proven NHL talent, but they aren’t expected to take a sincere run at Canada or the USA. While they are the third-ranked team in terms of betting odds, the Swedes’ price to win gold has decreased from +525 to +700.
The defending gold medalists have seen a similar decrease in odds. Finland has moved from +1000 to +1200, on weakness of 2.2% of the betting tickets and 1.1% of the betting handle. Coming off their first tournament win in Olympic history, the Finns are destined for a massive letdown in Italy.
The Rest of the Field
While virtually all of the betting action is concentrated on the top four teams, there are eight other competitors in this year’s tournament.
Czechia leads the way with a 1.4% ticket and 0.4% handle count, with their odds tumbling from +1300 to +2500. From there, Slovakia (0.4% ticket), Germany (0.4% ticket), Italy (0.3% ticket), Switzerland (0.2% ticket), Latvia (0.1% ticket), Denmark (0.1% ticket), and France (0.0% ticket) round out the field. It’s worth noting that cumulatively, the bottom seven countries have accounted for a minuscule 0.4% of the betting handle.
Switzerland’s 0.2% handle would be the closest interpretation of a true longshot worth backing in 2026.
Final Betting Thoughts
If we’re trusting the betting odds, the 2026 Milan-Cortina Olympic Games Men’s Hockey Tournament will come down to Team USA versus Canada. The knockout round will be re-seeded after the quarterfinals, so as long as those two teams finish top two in group play, their only potential showdown would come in the gold medal game.
However, if things don’t go as planned early, and either team suffers an unexpected loss, that would throw the betting odds into a frenzy. Some sharp bettors may have already insulated their positions on other dark horses, but if you haven’t, make sure you stay glued to the results to call a betting audible if something goes awry.
Stay tuned for more Olympic coverage as we race toward an exciting conclusion to the 2026 Olympic Games in Italy!
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